That is one year after the previous screening of the airline agency.
The agency, which represents 290 airlines, attributed the slow recovery to several factors, including lack of consumer confidence, declining business travel, and new coronavirus spikes in the United States and elsewhere.
The revised benchmark forecast is that international passenger traffic will drop 55% in 2020, compared to 2019. In April, IATA had forecast that the drop would be just 46%.
Passenger numbers are expected to increase 62% next year, but will continue to drop nearly 30% compared to pre-Covid times, with full recovery to pre-pandemic levels that are not on the cards inward four years.
“Passenger traffic bottomed out in April, but the strength of the rebound has been very weak,” Alexandre de Juniac, IATA CEO and CEO, said in a statement. “The improvement we’ve seen has been domestic flight.”
Unsurprisingly, short-haul travel is expected to recover faster than long-haul, due to passenger comfort levels, but also because international markets remain largely closed.
“Consumer confidence is depressed and is not helped by the UK weekend’s decision to impose a general quarantine on all travelers returning from Spain,” de Juniac said.
The British government made a surprise U-turn on its travel corridor between the UK and Spain on Saturday, reestablishing its 14-day quarantine for all travelers arriving from the popular tourist destination with immediate effect, following an increase in coronavirus cases in the country.
In terms of countries’ domestic traffic, China’s airlines are leading the recovery, with traffic down 35.5% in June compared to 2019, compared to a decrease of 46.3% in May.
IATA says that scientific advances in the fight against Covid-19, including the development of a successful vaccine, could allow for a faster recovery. But for now, the future looks bleak.
“In many parts of the world infections continue to rise,” said de Juniac of IATA. “All of this points to a longer recovery period and more pain for the industry and the global economy.”
With airlines struggling financially, governments will need to continue aid measures to prevent carriers from sinking, the airline body said.
“Summer, the busiest season in our industry, is passing quickly,” said de Juniac. He said there was “little chance of an uptick in international air travel unless governments act quickly and decisively to find alternatives to border closings, reopens to stop the start that destroy confidence and quarantine that kills demand.” .
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