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BAKU, KOMPAS.com – Sunday (8/11/2020) Azerbaijan managed to seize Shusha, a major city in Nagorno-Karabakh, and two days later Baku said that Armenia had surrendered.
Turkey, as an ally of Azerbaijan, also claims to have made important progress, following the agreement of a total ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia on Tuesday (11/10/2020) that became effective from the early hours of the morning.
The total ceasefire negotiated by Russia put the war in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, which has lasted for 6 weeks, to a temporary conclusion.
Read also: Chronology of the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia: beginnings, violations and ceasefire
Reporting from Asia Times On Monday (10/26/2020), the momentum for Azerbaijan’s victory came hours after the US-brokered ceasefire failed.
At that time, Azerbaijan had several options. They were already moving into open fields along the Iranian border and could quickly approach the strategic Lachin corridor.
The problem is that the Azerbaijani forces are being overwhelmed and the Karabakh soldiers have retreated to the forested plateau.
The choice at the time was to follow military logic or choose diplomacy with enormous political advantages.
In military logic, Azerbaijan could concentrate on attacking the Lachin corridor, the crucial route between Karabakh and Armenia. The successful occupation of Lachin will cut off supplies and the flow of reinforcements to Karabakh, leaving Karabakh Armenians locked up for months.
Also read: Russia deploys peacekeeping forces in Nagorno-Karabakh to stop the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan
But for Azerbaijan that wants to take full control of Karabakh, it will not be enough because it is less profitable in political terms and does not meet the expectations of achieving total victory.
Then the second option is to divert the Lachin corridor to attack the city of Shusha (or Shushi) within Karabakh.
A man repairs a damaged cable next to the rubble of a house in the historic town of Shusha, about 15 kilometers from the capital of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, Stepanakert, on November 1, 2020.As a historical cultural center, the city of Shusha will offer important political rewards to the administration of President Ilham Aliyev, for enhancing Baku’s diplomatic negotiating position in any future negotiations.
However, that strategy carries great risk. The Azerbaijani army could be caught in a more intense guerrilla war, because the Karabakh troops have the advantage of mobility and shock power.
Also read: Armenia-Azerbaijan total armistice, excited Baku citizens
Winter is coming
As some Western military observers have noted Asia TimesRaw, the “teeth to tail” attack had no logistical resistance. The invading Azerbaijani forces were also too scattered.
This condition will be counterproductive if it continues, because any counterattack by the Karabakh Armenian soldiers will only get little resistance from the exposed Azerbaijani military.
Another factor hampering Azerbaijan is the approaching winter, which could reduce visibility as the mountainous terrain is snow-covered and impassable.
But with President Ilham Aliyev’s ambition for total victory, Azerbaijan took a risk. They moved towards Shusha and the battlefield moved to the hilltop city, which is one of the key cities of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Also read: Agree on a total ceasefire, official reconciliation between Azerbaijan and Armenia?
Shusha is located on the main road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh with the Armenian territory. The city supports the separatists who want the independence of Karabakh.
Although the war was fierce, Azerbaijan’s maneuvers were fruitful. Ilham Aliyev on Sunday (10/8/2020) stated that his troops managed to seize Shusha from the Armenian separatists.
“With great pride and happiness, I inform you that the city of Shusha has been liberated,” Aliyev said in a televised speech. Kompas.com since AFP.
Aliyev also stated that November 8 will be remembered by the people of Azerbaijan as the day when he will return to Shusha.
Also read: Azerbaijan demands the capture of Shusha, an important city of Nagorno-Karabakh
Images released by the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry show its soldiers firing artillery at the territory of Armenian troops in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Stop the fire
Images released by the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry show its soldiers firing artillery at the territory of Armenian troops in Nagorno-Karabakh.Two days after Shusha left Armenian hands, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that he had signed a ceasefire with Azerbaijan and Russia in Nagorno-Karabakh.
“I have signed an agreement with the President of Azerbaijan and the President of Russia,” Pashinyan said in a statement on Facebook.
“This step taken is not only painful for me, but also for all the people,” continued the prime minister, who is also a journalist.
Quoted AFP On Monday (09/11/2020), the Armenian Prime Minister since May 2018 explained that the agreement would be implemented from 01:00 local time on Tuesday (10/11/2020).
Also read: Azerbaijan shoots down Russian helicopter on the border with Armenia
Pashinyan’s declaration also officially ended the two-state war in Nagorno-Karabakh, which had broken out since September 27.
“I decided this after thoroughly analyzing the situation facing the military,” said Pashinyan in response to the latest events in Karabakh.
He was referring to a statement by the ethnic Armenian separatist group that announced that they had lost Shusha, which is a major city in Karabakh.
The separatists claim they are in danger of losing Stepanakert, which is the capital of the Caucasus region.
Therefore, Pashinyan explained that the truce, while painful, was the best solution for his people.
Also read: Armenian Prime Minister announces painful ceasefire with Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh
