When the forecast of BI Governor and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani was lost, the first quarter grew only 2.97%

Reporter: Yusuf Imam Santoso The | Editor: Noverius Laoli

KONTAN.CO.ID – YAKARTA. The prediction of the Bank of Indonesia Governor and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati about economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 is far below reality.

The reason, BI Governor Perry Warjiyo was optimistic that first-quarter economic growth could still hit 4.3%. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani remained optimistic about economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 at a level of 4.5% -4.7%.

But in fact, at the official launch of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) on Tuesday (5/5), Indonesia’s economic growth was only 2.97%, that is, slower than BI expectations and the Ministry of Finance.

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“Indonesia’s economic development, exports and imports fell, inflation remained stable and direct investment grew 8% in the first quarter of 2020. Therefore, the estimated economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 is still at around 4.5% -4.7%, “Sri Mulyani said at a working meeting with the DPR Budget Agency (Banggar) yesterday Monday (4/5).

Unfortunately, the data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) for today, Tuesday (5/5) shows that the realization of economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 only reached 2.97%.

This achievement fell compared to the performance in the first quarter of 2020 at the level of 5.07%.

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Previously, Sri Mulyani said that the impact of Covid-19 was a severe blow to the Indonesian economy, especially in the range from late February to March 2020. According to him, the pandemic had not been felt in January-early February of 2020.

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Even late last year, optimism in the national economy will improve as the United States (US) and China increasingly show signs of trade deals. That adds to the optimism of the national economy this year.

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In fact, the Covid-19 impact gradually affected not only the tourism and aviation sectors, but also spread to various sectors, such as manufacturing.

“When Covid-19 was initially only felt in the tourism and trade sectors because the trading partners of Indonesia’s (China) economic activity had already been disrupted.” But, this spread everywhere, “said Sri Mulyani.

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On the other hand, Sri Mulyani saw that from the global purchasing managers index (PMI) there was a sharp decrease in the manufacturing and services sectors in almost all countries.

“The PMI Chinaturun was strong in January-February because they were infected first and have now even recovered. So this is a matter of time and their resilience,” said the minister.

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Going forward, Sri Mulyani said Indonesia’s economic growth remained a major challenge given the prediction of the global economic downturn. A high level of uncertainty indicates that downside risks remain in the projections. In addition, the economic slowdown occurred abroad, including Indonesia’s main trading partners.

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