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KOMPAS.com – Throughout the 244-year history of the United States (US), there has never been a president who refuses to leave the White House after losing a general election (election).
The transfer of power in an orderly, legitimate, and peaceful manner is one of the advantages of democracy in the United States.
Therefore, when Donald Trump declared himself refusing to accept the defeat of Joe Biden, a situation was created that had never happened before and that concerned the American people.
Next, analysts are challenged to come up with a series of scenarios that they didn’t think would happen.
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Far from ending
Trump was playing golf outside of Washington DC when several US media outlets projected a victory for Biden on Saturday (7/11/2020).
A moment later, Trump’s campaign team issued a statement stating that the election was far from over.
“We all know that Joe Biden is in a hurry to emerge as the winner by mistake, and why his allies in the media are trying to help him: they don’t want the truth revealed,” he said in a statement.
“The simple fact is that the election is far from over,” the statement continued, indicating that Trump would continue to challenge the election results through various lawsuits alleging fraud.
The United States Constitution clearly states that the president’s term ends at noon on January 20, 2021.
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Biden is projected to win in multiple states, allowing him to garner 270 votes in the Electoral College system. Therefore, you have the right to serve as president for the next four years.
Trump still has legitimate powers that he can use to challenge the election results.
However, if there are no dramatic events in court in the near future and the evidence of irregularities in the election you mentioned turns out to be null, the new president will take office on January 20, 2021 and Trump will have to resign.
Get rid of the White House
During his campaign, Trump has bluntly warned that he will not accept defeat.
He repeatedly said that he was determined to stay in power, regardless of what the officials of the general electoral commission said.
He even indicated that the only way he could lose was if there was cheating.
Since then, various circles in the United States have begun to discuss what will happen if Trump realizes his threat and tries to hold on to power.
This hypothesis was even put forward by Biden while campaigning.
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In a televised interview on June 11, comedian Trevor Noah asked Biden if he had thought about the possibility that Trump would refuse to leave the White House if he lost the election.
“Yes, I have thought about it,” Biden responded, adding that he believed that in that situation the military would have the authority to expel Trump from the White House.
Biden’s belief that voters, not candidates, determine election results was confirmed by his campaign team on Friday (6/11/2020).
“The American people will decide this election and the United States government is very capable of escorting the advance out of the White House,” Biden’s campaign team said.
It could be the United States Marshal or the Presidential Security Service in charge of keeping Trump out of the president’s residence.
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The Presidential Security Service or Secret Service is an institution that is not only responsible for presidential security, but also has a legal obligation to protect all former presidents.
The institution will continue to protect Trump after January 20, 2021.
Since the projection of Biden’s victory in the US elections became clear and his victory will be announced, the Secret Service has increased security against the president-elect.
In fact, safeguarding Biden has reached the level of “presidential security,” though Trump insists the Democratic Party has lost.
President of the United States (USA) Donald Trump and senior adviser to the presidency and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, while in the Oval Office of the White House on September 11, 2020.Also Read: Biden Calls Trump Shame For Rejecting The Results Of The US Presidential Election.
An unthinkable scenario?
If the most extreme situation occurs, and Trump continues to refuse to leave the White House, it may be necessary to assess the loyalty of the security forces to the president.
BBC he asked some experts if it was possible that Trump was trying to use the country’s security forces to illegally maintain power.
“It will be difficult and will destroy the essential rules for a president to abuse power to retain office after appearing to have lost the election. However, it is not inconceivable,” said Professor Dakota Rudesill, an expert on affiliated national security policy and legislation to Ohio State University. in the United States for BBC.
“It will do great harm to the country, to important principles in civil-military relations and to the future of democracy in the world,” he added.
However, Rudesill said that in his view, the Trump scenario of defending power and backing the security forces is unlikely to occur.
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Rudesill added that military personnel pledge allegiance to the constitution, not current politicians.
“And the officer with the highest military position in the country, General Mark Milley as Joint Chief of Staff, has repeatedly said that the military has no role in this election,” Rudesill continued.
Rudesill is not the only expert studying this topic. Another expert is Keisha Blaine, a professor at the University of Pittsburgh who specializes in the study of social protest movements.
“The fact that we have to ask ourselves whether the military will intervene in the elections reveals a lot about the dire conditions in our country,” said Blaine. BBC.
“Four years ago, many Americans did not think about this. However, after seeing Trump deploy federal personnel [dalam kericuhan] in Portland and Washington in recent months, this has been a serious concern, “said Blaine.
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“In my opinion, this scenario is not going to happen, but we cannot rule out that it is a serious possibility considering what happened this year,” he said.
As a series of protests erupt with the anti-racism movement in the middle of this year, Trump is considering deploying the military to disperse the demonstrations.
June 5, every day The New York Times claims General Miller persuaded Trump not to enact the Dissidence Act of 1807 to deploy an active force to suppress a series of protests.
The newspaper wrote that the law was a line that US military officials said they would not cross, even if the president ordered it.
In the end, Trump ordered the deployment of the National Guard, which, depending on the circumstances, could act under the jurisdiction of the president and / or state governors.
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Non-military security forces personnel under the authority of the Department of Homeland Security also participated in the suppression of a series of demonstrations in Washington, Portland, and several other cities.
From that incident, some have speculated that in the event of an election-related crisis, Trump could potentially deploy armed personnel from non-military units.
However, if the military is supposed to be unwilling to deploy to defend Trump’s office, it is hard to imagine that Trump can successfully maintain power in the White House.
Residents mock a motorcade transporting US President Donald Trump en route to the White House, Washington DC, United States, on Saturday (7/11/2020). Joe Biden is confirmed to make his way to the White House with the 290 electoral votes he has won so far, ending the 4-year leadership of Donald Trump.Violence while waiting for the new president?
Rudesill said he was concerned about these scenarios.
“I have written about the possibility that President Trump may attempt to use an executive order, or that the Department of Justice, which is controlled by his political allies, seeks to issue an ‘order,’ indicating that the Executive Authority should consider Trump as the winner of a contested election, “Rudesill said. BBC.
However, he cautioned that the move was highly inappropriate and unacceptable.
“Ordering the military to continue saluting the president beyond his term at noon on January 20 will put the military in an unlikely situation,” he said.
“Half the population of this country and many others in the world would think that the apolitical US military has taken a partisan position. The military should never have received such an order,” Rudesill said.
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And, in addition to the extreme conditions in which the autonomy of the security forces is at stake due to partisan disputes, others have warned that the current political situation may lead to violence in other areas.
A situation in which the losing candidate refuses to accept defeat could raise “the possibility of serious civil unrest,” Keisha Blaine told the BBC.
The president’s rhetoric “has increased the likelihood of protests and even violence,” he said.
The situation in several US cities in recent months, when protesters persistently expressed support for the president, and at a time when radical opposition groups emerged together, some of which are also armed, is a reminder of the potential of violence that have created political tensions in the United States.
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