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US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SERIES
These are the facts that are expected to change the political map of the United States, along with the scenario to calculate the victory of Trump and Biden in the 2020 United States presidential election.
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TOTAL Momentum along with socio-economic and demographic changes have moved to change the composition of the political map of the United States (US) in the 2020 US Presidential Elections, which were held on November 3. 2020 local time.
Both the Republican base of support that supports Donald Trump and the Democratic Party that defended Joe Biden are projected to change.
Electoral support count (electoral votes) in the Electoral College is also expected to change unlike the previous trend.
The following are a number of phenomena and events that are expected to affect the final results of the 2020 US Presidential Election:
Loyal block Triumph Y Biden
Current presidential candidate Donald Trump has the loyal support of a bloc of white male voters with no college education or often called blue-collar voters.
These industrial voting blocs live in small towns or agricultural rural areas. Trump also has the loyal support of conservative evangelical voters.
However, the support of this voting bloc is clearly seen to be weak when referring to the poll results, especially in the Rust Belt state.
SHUTTERSTOCK / NICOLETA IONESCU
Illustration of Donald Trump and Joe Biden, two candidates in the 2020 US presidential election
Although he still lagged behind, Biden managed to trim Trump’s lead from 37 points over Democrats in the 2016 presidential election to 23 points, according to the latest Siena College / The New York Times poll published on October 20, 2020.
As a result, Trump’s chances of winning are even more complicated because he cannot expand his voter base.
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s ballot is made up of voters living in large cities, voters from minority groups such as Hispanics and African Americans, and young voters.
This makes white voters, both male and female, college-educated undecided voters in the 2020 US presidential election. Most of them live in suburban areas.
Key from suburban
In the 2020 presidential election, the primary key to determining the winner of the presidential election lies with suburban voters.
Suburban voters are known as traditional Republican loyalists, especially since former President Ronald Reagan came to power in 1981.
That’s because suburban voter demographics were initially dominated by college-educated, white voters.
As we entered the 2010s, minority voters such as African Americans, Asian Americans, and Hispanics began to move to the suburbs, making the region very diverse.
As is known, minority voters are the voting pockets of the Democratic Party. His presence in the suburbs began to erode support for the Republican Party.
The long-standing loyalty of support that Republicans enjoyed was further weakened in the 2016 presidential election when Hillary Clinton surprisingly won in dozens of suburban districts.
REUTERS / RICK WILKING
US Presidential Candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump argue in the 2016 US Presidential Election Presidential Debate at Hofstra University, Hempstead, New York on Tuesday (9/27/2016) WIB. This second debate took place in St. Louis, Missouri.
Finally, Republican votes in the suburbs collapsed in the 2018 midterm or electoral elections.
Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives (DPR) by winning 38 candidates in the suburbs of Phoenix, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Oklahoma City, Houston and Dallas.
Outrage over Trump’s offensive rhetoric, Trump’s relentless lies, Trump’s indecent treatment of women, the scandal after his administration’s scandal, and the chaos in the White House are all suspicious reasons for suburban voters to switch sides. politics.
Trump narrowly won in suburban areas in the 2016 presidential election by 5 points from Hillary. It is almost certain that this victory will not be repeated.
In fact, Trump is threatened with becoming a presidential candidate with the biggest defeat in the suburbs in the 2020 presidential election. In fact, without a victory in the suburbs, it is almost impossible for the 74-year-old president to defeat Biden.
Various survey methods live interview The most accurate values show Biden exceeding two digits 15-20 points above Trump in suburban areas.
This advantage is extraordinary because no Democratic presidential candidate in history has earned more than 5 points in suburban areas.
Even Barack Obama, who won a landslide national vote in the 2008 presidential election, is only 2 points ahead in suburban areas.
Anger Voting women
In addition to the support of suburban voters, another factor that made Biden so powerful in the poll was the incredible support of female voters, especially those who live in suburban areas.
Outrage over Trump’s offensive rhetoric prompted large voters to migrate to Biden. Poll averages show that female voters give Biden a crushing double-digit lead over Trump by 25 points or more.
This figure is fantastic because if it is shown to materialize in the 2020 US presidential election, it will break the record of 24 points that Democratic Party President Lyndon Johnson won in the 1964 presidential election.
AP PHOTO / Julio Cortez
United States President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden during the inaugural debate on the United States presidential elections at Case Western University and the Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, Ohio on September 29, 2020.
Democratic candidates other than Johnson have only earned a maximum of 15 points from female voters.
No wonder Biden’s poll excels in state of oscillation which has a large number of female voters, especially white, in the Rust Belt trio: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
With Justice Amy Coney Barrett almost certain to be the Chief Justice of the United States, women voters will be increasingly motivated to vote Democrats.
Women voters fear that Conservative Justice Barrett along with five other conservative Supreme Court justices will repeal the Roe vs. Wade Supreme Court decision guaranteeing the freedom of American women to abort.
Elderly voters Y Covid-19 pandemic
Older voters, who tend to be more conservative, have long been the basis for Republican votes. The largest number of older voters is in Florida with 20 percent of the population.
Older voters are also scattered across the crucial Rust Belt trio, namely Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
However, the Covid-19 pandemic is predicted to destroy older voters’ support for Donald Trump.
AP / IAN MAULE
US President Donald Trump while campaigning at the BOK Center, Tulsa, Oklahoma, on Saturday (6/20/2020), and many supporters appeared not to be wearing masks.
Outraged by Trump’s behavior for not taking the corona virus seriously, elderly voters who are categorized as prone to the infection are suspected of changing their pick for Joe Biden.
Biden is the first Democratic presidential candidate since the 1996 presidential election, which is expected to receive strong support from older voters.
Also read: Attend the Trump campaign, the masses are prohibited from suing if they contract Covid-19
In the 2016 presidential election, Trump beat out older voters by a single digit margin. Recent polls show that conditions are changing dramatically.
Biden, who is also a 77-year-old man, has an 8-10 point lead over Trump. Of the prominence gained in opinion polls so far, 25 percent of the population of American voters are elderly voters.
Without this crucial support from voters over 65, Melania Trump’s husband loses the moon to continue his presidency.
