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WASHINGTON DC, KOMPAS.com – The United States could turn into a dangerous situation if incumbent presidential candidate Donald Trump is declared the winner before all the votes are counted.
Launching The Guardian On Saturday (10/31/2020), the worst-case scenario for the electoral disaster in the United States could occur, with cases of loss of votes, armed insurgency and other possible crises in thousands of local jurisdictions on November 3.
However, it could be worse with Trump leading the electoral vote tally and declaring his victory before all the votes have been counted, on Tuesday night (03/11/2020).
Analysts consider it the most sensitive danger and signs that Trump’s babbling has begun.
However, according to them, misinformation can be avoided by increasing public awareness about the accuracy of electoral vote counts.
The worst case scenario is also known as the “red mirage”.
“Red mirages are known as supervillains and they are just as dangerous,” said former US Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Barack Obama administration, Julian Castro, in a video recorded as a public service announcement to voters this week.
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“On election night, there is a real chance that the data will show Republicans taking the lead before all the votes are counted. Then they can pretend something bad is happening when the numbers (votes) turn in favor of the Democrats, “Castro said.
In that scenario, Trump’s declaration of victory is echoed by conservative television networks, Fox News, and for a strong Republican Party throughout the United States.
A few days later, when the final results show that it is actually Joe Biden who won the presidency, the actual election results have been sucked into a vortex of misinformation and chaos.
For some officials, that scenario was too realistic to put into words.
A possible delay of several days in the vote count is anticipated in Philadelphia, which is largely a Democratic vote critical to Biden’s victory in Pennsylvania.
Currently, it is the state that quants believe is most likely to tip elections one way or another.
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After counting just 6,000 absent ballots in the 2016 election, the city of Philadelphia, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by 7: 1, expects to receive and count up to 400,000 ballots this year, amid the Covid- pandemic. 19.
All ballots will be counted inside the city’s main convention center on Arch Street, beginning at 7am local time on Election Day, by an army of election officials.
The delay that officials know will be necessary to finish the count could be enough time for Trump to cast doubt on the result, an offer that the incumbent presidential candidate has begun.
“Bad things are happening in Philadelphia,” Trump said in the first presidential debate in September.
At the time he warned of “tens of thousands of rigged ballots” and “urged his people” to go to the polls with caution, although there was no evidence of widespread electoral fraud in the United States.
Pennsylvania officials and activists say the antidote to the “red mirage” is as simple as the stage itself.
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The public must understand, these officials said, that Philadelphia will not be able to report its election results the night of November 3, and may not be able to do so for several days afterward, due to the extraordinary circumstances posed by the Covid-19 pandemic.
In turn, the rise of Philadelphia Democrats, when all is calculated, will likely create a major shift in the state’s perception of Biden.
Ultimately, the change could be big enough to eliminate the voting advantage that Trump could build in rural Pennsylvania, to turn the vote in his favor.
“Not all votes will be counted until midnight on November 3,” said Tom Ridge, former Governor of the Republic of Pennsylvania and former US Secretary of Homeland Security under George W Bush, who condemned the “utterly reprehensible behavior and rhetoric. “Trump Election.
“Due to Covid-19, there will be millions of votes that will take several days to count,” Ridge said in a telephone interview.
“One way to reduce anxiety levels is to remind Americans of that reality and ask for peace and patience so that every vote can be counted,” he said.
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The strength of the red mirage scenario, for some analysts, is that some aspects seem more certain than scenario.
“People need to know that there will be no results on election night,” said Lisa Deeley, chair of the three-member panel of Philadelphia city commissioners that handles elections.
“Then people will go to sleep and the count will not be finished. But we will work continuously, throughout the night, to make sure we calculate it quickly and accurately, we will not sacrifice precision for speed,” he continued.
While plausible, there are also many reasons why a “red mirage” scenario might not occur.
One reason is that Biden may finish the race early on election night in states like Florida.
Or Biden could win the state of Pennsylvania, where he leads by 6 points in the poll average, without needing the last 200,000 votes from Philadelphia.
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