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Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The director of the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Dwikorita Karnawati, opened questions about research showing the potential for a tsunami of up to 20 meters in southern Java.
In an interview with CNBC Indonesia on Saturday (9/26/2020), Dwikorita confirmed that the research was conducted by the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) and involved researchers from BKMG, namely Dr. Pepen Supendi, especially in data processing and seismicity analysis.
Dwikorita also explained that the research conducted was a multidisciplinary data, knowledge and interagency study to assess the potential for earthquakes to occur in the seismic gap area at the source of the PA earthquake in South Java. Furthermore, the research also models the impact of the mega earthquake in the form of the height of the tsunami waves on the southern coast of Java.
“Therefore, the area of the seismic gap in the zone of origin of the mega-earthquake is used as input in modeling tsunamis using various scenarios,” said Dwikorita.
The first scenario, if only the South West Java megathrust segment is split. Scenario 2, if only the South East Java megathrust segment is split.
So the worst case scenario is that if these two segments break, an earthquake with a magnitude of M 9.1 can occur. Based on this model, it can trigger a tsunami with a maximum height of 20 meters in the southern part of West Java (more precisely in southern Banten) and 12 meters in southern East Java, with an average tsunami height of 4 ,5 meters.
“According to the results of the investigation, the time it took for the tsunami waves to arrive was about 20 minutes,” said former rector of Gadjah Mada University.
On that occasion, Dwikorita said, Indonesia has been prepared to face the potential of mega-thrust since 2008. BMKG has operated a Tsunami Early Warning and Monitoring System to anticipate the impact of mega-thrust earthquakes such as those that have occurred in Aceh. At that time, the arrival time of the tsunami waves at the nearest beach was approximately 20 minutes.
“The built system is operated by using the Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) to quickly calculate the parameters, magnitudes and locations of earthquake hypocenters, which can then be automatically calculated (estimated) with mathematical models possible tsunami events. “Dwikorita said.
In this way, he continued, information on earthquake events and tsunami early warnings could be disseminated automatically through BNPB, BPBD, television and various other modes of information dissemination, SMS, telephone or fax, social networks, information applications. BMKG. The time span is 3-5 minutes after the earthquake occurs.
“This means there are still 15 to 17 minutes left before the estimated arrival of a tsunami wave for evacuation,” he said.
However, Dwikorita stressed that the research and early warning systems were not enough to truly protect the community from the threat of a tsunami. There must still be the willingness of the community and local government to respond to these early warnings quickly and accurately, including when preparing evacuation infrastructure and facilities.
“Other than that, the public should continue to be educated to be more aware of the dangers of the earthquake and tsunami in their area,” he said.
A tsunami expert from the Agency for Technology Assessment and Application (BPPT), Widjo Kongko, confirmed that there was a potential threat from a major earthquake and tsunami in the South Java subduction zone.
Referring to the Wichman catalog, he revealed that the possibility of a major earthquake and tsunami will not be very long in the future. This is based on 400 to 500 year repeats of major earthquakes that occurred in the southern subduction zone of Java.
A mega earthquake that has the potential to cause a tsunami of up to 20 meters can also occur at any time. Even so, the height of the tsunami can vary in West Java as well as in East Java and Sumatra.
Therefore, Widjo reminded all parties to be vigilant. This is because the earthquake, which has the potential to generate a tsunami, does not yet have a detector. For that, he advised people who live in coastal areas.
“Keep in mind that this earthquake and tsunami is a cycle, so those who live on the coast need to be prepared and be careful,” Widjo said when contacted by CNBC Indonesia on Saturday (9/26/2020).
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