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Jakarta, CNN Indonesia –
The Governor of DKI Jakarta, Anies Baswedan, has just implemented a large-scale sector application (PSBB) Volume II on September 14. This PSBB is to reduce the number of cases COVID-19 It continues to rise and there is no sign of a decline in Jakarta.
To date (9/18), the total number of Covid-19 cases reached 236,519 cases. Of that number 170,774 were declared cured and 9,336 died. The number of daily cases on September 18 reached 3,891 positive cases. Meanwhile, the highest daily additional record occurred on September 16 with 3,963.
Not only that, until Thursday (9/17) Indonesian Physicians Association (IDI) recorded that 117 doctors died from Covid-19. The death of health workers called IDI can affect the quality of health services.
On the other hand, the chair of the PB IDI mitigation team, Adib, said that Indonesia had not yet reached the peak of the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to him, Indonesia will become the epicenter of Covid-19 in the world if nothing changes.
If this happens, Indonesia will become the epicenter after about six months of experiencing the Covid-19 pandemic. Australian Griffith University epidemiologist Dicky Budiman said he agreed with concerns that Indonesia could become the epicenter of Covid-19.
The increase in the number of cases is not only bad news as long as it is not accompanied by an increase in the number of deaths and an increase in the burden of health centers that makes health centers no longer able to accommodate patients. patients with Covid-19.
Unfortunately, in Indonesia the increase in cases has been accompanied by a high mortality rate and an increase in the capacity load of health facilities.
“If this is allowed, Indonesia will become the epicenter. I agree that Indonesia is concerned that Indonesia may become the epicenter,” Dicky said when contacted. CNNIndonesia.com, Friday (18/9).
Dicky revealed that the increase in Covid-19 cases was not always news because it could indicate that the government was able to detect Covid-19 patients, thus increasing the possibility of controlling Covid-19.
The Covid-19 case can be good news if it is not accompanied by an increase in the number of deaths and the burden on health facilities.
“Our control depends on our ability to detect that person, to prevent people from carrying the virus,” said Dicky.
Therefore, Dicky said that PSBB is an intervention that can help the government increase the speed of control of Covid-19 that is competing with the transmission of Covid-19.
“So we need additional strategies, like total PSBB, to match our speed so there are no more deaths and we don’t overload the hospital,” said Dicky.
Dicky admitted that the large number of doctor deaths will increase the burden on health services. The availability of health personnel may not be sufficient for the increasing burden. In the end, the death rate will continue to rise.
“Where the death rate can increase. The sickness rate of health workers also affects the burden of health services. Because if a doctor is sick, he cannot take care of patients,” said Dicky.
Indonesia’s potential to become the epicenter of the Covid-19 case has indeed been mentioned since the number of positive cases in Indonesia surpassed China in mid-July.
Dicky at the time said that the government had to be aware of this, because Indonesia had the potential to become the epicenter of Covid-19 in Asia.
“With the exponential increase escalating to 100,000, and the test-and-trace capacity in various regions that has not yet increased, then our potential to become a new epicenter in Asia may occur,” said Dicky.
Dicky’s statement was due to the fact that the number of tests in Indonesia was still too far from China. He then said that there were still many positive cases of Covid-19 that had not been detected.
“The thing to pay attention to and be aware of is the big difference in our China and evidence tracking capabilities.
With almost the same number of cases, we have only tested about 700 thousand people. Meanwhile, China has almost 90 million, “said Dicky.
Dicky also revealed a positive rate of over 10 percent. This further convinced Dicky that there were still many cases of Covid-19 that had not been detected. The positive rate is the number of positive tests divided by the total number of tests.
“Ideally, the positive rate is in the 3-5 percent range,” Dicky said.
Additionally, Dicky suggested that the government increase trial tests to 100,000 per day. This is done by the government to speed up the detection of Covid-19 and manage it quickly.
“We have to catch up on the SARS-CoV-2 virus,” said Dicky.
Dicky recalled that Indonesia had once been the epicenter of the avian influenza (H5N1) pandemic. He said that Covid-19 was different from bird flu because it was difficult to detect. Therefore, he continues to remind the government to improve testing and tracing.
On the other hand, the machine learning projections on the Covid-19 Projections website show the curve of the Covid-19 case that continues to rise. Even the Head of Infectious Diseases at the University of Maryland Upper Chesapeake Health, Faheem Younus, also tweeted about the poor projection of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia.
Machine learning predicts that there will be 359,205 confirmed positive cases of Covid-19 on November 1, 2020.
Based on this prediction, Younus tweeted the results of the screening of the Covid-19 case in Indonesia through his Twitter account @FaheemYounus. In his tweet, he suggested that the government conduct testing, tracking and isolation before it is too late.
In response to this, an epidemiologist at Airlangga University School of Public Health, Laura Navika, said that machine learning depends on the quality of the data collected. The more accurate the data collected, the more accurate the machine learning predictions will be.
When asked about Indonesia’s potential to become the epicenter of the new Covid-19 in Asia, Laura said there was still India with a positive Covid-19 number reaching 2,153,010.
However, he said that Indonesia should be vigilant regarding the number of cases detected in Indonesia. Because Laura said that there are still limitations in field tests that make the numbers inaccurate with the real numbers.
“However, the thing to watch out for is whether the current amount of data in Indonesia has shown appropriate data, if there are no limitations in the examination that make the data not real in the field,” Laura said.
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