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Scientists remind us that we must prepare for a co-pandemic for two years.
REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, YAKARTA – A study by a team of scientists from the University of Minnesota, United States (USA) estimates that a new type of coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) can last between 18 and 24 months. Scientists presented three possible ways the virus could continue to spread in the coming years.
In the first scenario, wave one of the new crown type crown will last until spring of this year (March – May). This is followed by a series of small recurring waves that occur throughout the summer, steadily, over a period of one or two years. The virus will gradually decrease in 2021.
“The occurrence of these waves can vary geographically and may depend on what mitigation measures exist and how they are loosened. Depending on the height of the wave crest, this scenario may require periodic recovery and further relaxation of mitigation actions in the next one to two years, “the research team said. CNBC.
The second scenario predicts that the first wave of a new type of corona virus in spring will be followed by larger waves in the fall or winter of 2020 or later this year. One or more smaller waves will come later in 2021. According to the researchers, this pattern is similar to that seen during the 1918 flu epidemic that killed up to 50 million people worldwide.
In the third or final scenario, the first wave will be followed by the slow burning lambat of the current transmission, but without a clear wave pattern. The pattern will vary geographically and can be influenced by the level of mitigation actions implemented in various regions.
“Any scenario followed by a pandemic, assuming that at least some level of mitigation action is underway. We must be prepared for at least 18 to 24 months of significant COVID-19 activity, with points appearing periodically in various geographic areas,” said the team. The investigator.
The research team added that even as the pandemic subsides, the corona virus type is likely to continue to exist in the human population. The virus will synchronize to seasonal patterns with less severity over time.
Work to develop vaccines or treatments for COVID-19 is ongoing worldwide. Currently, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), there are at least 102 vaccines in development worldwide. However, experts estimate that it will take 12-18 months for the vaccine to be ready for production.
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