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Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Indonesia is sure to enter a recession hole after other countries. This can be seen in the forecast that the Indonesian economy will enter the negative zone in the third quarter of 2020.
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said that for the third quarter, the economy is forecast to be in the range of minus 2.9 percent to minus 1 percent. This means that the Indonesian economy contracted for two consecutive quarters after contracting 5.32% in the second quarter of 2020.
Meanwhile, year-round or full-year, the economy is also forecast to remain between minus 1.7 percent and minus 0.6 percent. This is because the contraction due to the Covid-19 pandemic will continue in the second half of this year.
“This means that negative territory may occur in the third quarter and may still be ongoing for the fourth quarter, which we are trying to be close to zero or positive,” he said via a virtual press conference on Tuesday (22 / 9/2020).
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Meanwhile, the economy in the third quarter was negative in line with the outlook, support sectors also continued to contract.
Household consumption minus 3% to minus -1.5%
Government consumption: positive 9.8% -17%
Investment: Contraction -8.5% to -6.6%
Export: Contraction -13.9% to -8.7%
Imports: Contraction from -26.8% to -16%.
The following is Sri Mulyani’s full statement regarding Indonesia’s economic forecast:
“The Ministry of Finance revised the forecast this September, which we previously estimated for this year to be -1.1% to a positive 0.2%. Our latest forecast for September 2020 is in the range of -1.7% to -0.6 “. %. This means that negative territory is likely to occur in the third quarter and may still be ongoing during the fourth quarter, that we are trying to get closer to 0% or positive.
For next year, we will continue to use what is discussed in the 2021 State Budget Bill, which is between 4.5% -5.5% with a forecast point of 5.0%. For other institutions, the average forecast for Indonesia varies between 5% and 6%. OECD forecasts for next year will grow by 5.3%, ADB by 5.3%, Bloomberg’s average opinion by 5.4%, IMF by 6.1%, World Bank by 4.8%
Therefore, all these forecasts are subject to or largely depend on how the Covid case develops and how this will affect economic activity. “
[Gambas:Video CNBC]
(dru)
