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Jakarta, CNN Indonesia –
world Bank projecting more than a third of households in Indonesia eat less than usual due to lack of money and other resources. Another reason, that is, running out of food.
A World Bank monitoring survey shows that the proportion of households facing food shortages has decreased between May or early June, but more than a quarter of households report food shortages.
“Food insecurity can be driven by loss of income,” wrote Aaditya Matto, the World Bank’s chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific, in a report titled World Bank Economics for East Asia and the Pacific October 2020 edition, cited on Tuesday (9/29).
For Indonesia’s economic growth throughout the year, the World Bank predicts minus 1.6 percent. In the worst case, the shrinkage even breaks less than 2 percent.
This projection is exactly the same as that transmitted by most of the country’s economists, since RI enters the recession phase in the third quarter.
In fact, last July, the World Bank considered that the Indonesian economy could still survive in the zero percent range.
“The economic recovery, in general, is related to the efficiency with which the disease (covid-19) is managed and how the countries that are exposed to face external shocks,” he added.
Meanwhile, for next year, the World Bank projects that the Indonesian economy will rebound with growth of 4.4 percent. However, if worst-case scenario occurs, next year’s economy will likely stagnate in the 3 percent range.
According to Aaditya, projected economic growth for this year and 2021 will largely depend on controlling the spread of COVID-19, including accelerating the availability of the corona vaccine.
Overall, the East Asia and Pacific region is projected to grow just 0.9 percent this year. This figure, based on World Bank records, is the lowest since 1967.
China is still expected to post 2 percent economic growth driven by public spending, strong exports and a low number of new infections since March.
[Gambas:Video CNN]Still, domestic consumption tends to be slow and makes its trading partners less profitable.
With the exception of China, other countries in the East Asia and Pacific region are expected to contract by 3.5 percent. In a worst case scenario, the figure could fall to a contraction of 4.8 percent.
The World Bank said the outlook for the East Asia and Pacific region was brighter next year with growth expected to reach 7.9 percent in China and 5.1 percent in other countries in the region. .
However, production is expected to remain below pre-pandemic projection figures for the next two years.
The outlook is not particularly favorable for some of the severely affected Pacific Island countries. Its production is expected to remain 10 percent below its pre-crisis level during 2021.
Two of them are Indonesia and the Philippines. Indonesia has yet to enforce a strict closure, while the Philippines has gone through a strict closure and reopening cycle.
Both countries have the advantage of having young populations, but suffer from large informal sectors and poor living conditions for a large part of their population.
Indonesia is much less open than the Philippines to the rest of the world through trade, tourism, and remittances. Therefore, Indonesian production is expected to be less affected than that of the Philippines, but the outlook is uncertain.
(hrf / a)
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