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Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 was very low, the lowest since 2001. But this is only the “door to hell”, because the real challenges will come in the second quarter of 2020.
On Tuesday (5/5/2020), the Central Statistical Agency (BPS) reported that the Indonesian economy in the first quarter of 2020 grew 2.97% year after year (YoY) This is the weakest pace since the fourth quarter of 2001. Wow …
This realization is quite far from market expectations. The market consensus compiled by CNBC Indonesia estimates that the economy in the first quarter of 2020 could grow 4.33%.
From the supply side, the manufacturing sector, which is the largest contributor to the formation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is slowing down. In the first quarter of 2020, the manufacturing industry grew 2.06%, much slower compared to the same period of the previous year, which was 3.85%. Again, industrial growth is below economic growth, the sign of deindustrialization is strengthening.
“Some subsectors in the manufacturing industry are experiencing contractions, such as metal products, textiles and clothing, rubber products, and rubber and furniture. This should pay attention to all of us,” said Suhariyanto, director of BPS.
Meanwhile, in terms of spending, household consumption, which is the main contributor to GDP formation, can only grow 2.84%. This component generally grows diligently in the 5% range.
“Household consumption slowed considerably, in the first quarter of 2019 it was still 5.02%. The portion of household consumption was so large that it dragged (economic growth) down.”
“The expenses that are still growing are houses and domestic equipment. So what is slowing down is food and beverages and restaurants and hotels, this is due to PSBB (large-scale social restrictions) and a call to reduce external activities There are various components contracted, namely sera clothing, footwear and information and communication services, “said Ketjuk, Suhariyanto’s nickname.
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