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Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The exchange rate of the rupee rose 0.07% against the United States (US) dollar to Rp 14,140 / US $ in trading on Monday.
The positive sentiment came from the United States, where President Donald Trump eventually signed a $ 900 billion fiscal stimulus bill alongside a $ 1.4 trillion government budget.
By enacting the bill, it means the US government has been spared a shutdown, which has improved the confidence of market players.
Also, with the disbursement of fiscal stimulus, the money supply in the US economy will increase, in theory the exchange rate of the US dollar will weaken. The US dollar index, which is the benchmark for dollar strength yesterday, fell 0.4 percent below the 90 level.
Once again, the good news comes from the US, which may bring the rupee back into the green zone in today’s trade, Tuesday (12/29/2020).
The U.S. House of Representatives (DPR) passed the $ 2,000 per person direct cash assistance (BLT) bill that Trump previously requested. The bill now goes before the Senate for a vote, before going to President Trump’s table for signature.
If this is done, the amount of money circulating in the US economy will certainly rise again and the US dollar will become increasingly depressed.
Technically, the rupee symbolized by USD / IDR is still far from the psychological level of IDR 14,000 / US $. However, the opportunity to break below that level this week is not yet closed.
The rupee is still well below the 50-day moving average (50-day moving average / MA), 100-day (100-day MA), and 200-day (200-day MA), so there is still momentum for strengthening.
Meanwhile, the stochastic indicator on the daily chart has broken out of oversold territory (oversold).
Stochastic is a leading indicator or indicator that initiates price movements. When the stochastic reaches the area of overbought (above 80) or oversold (below 20), the price of an instrument has the possibility of reversing.
The stochastic has broken out of the oversold area, which means that there is a tendency for the rupee to weaken to decline.
 Chart: Daily Rupee (USD / IDR)Photo: Refinitiv |
The rupee is now under the resistance of 14,150 rupees / USD, as long as it remains below it, the Garuda currency has the potential to strengthen to the nearest support in the range of 14,115 rupees / USD. A steady break below this level will cause the rupee to strengthen to 14,090 IDR / US $ to 14,070 / US $.
Additional support is in the range of Rp. 14,000 / US $, if the rupee can pass it, it has the potential to strengthen to the psychological level of Rp. 14,000 / US $ or even lower this week.
Meanwhile, if resistance breaks down and stalls above it, the rupee risks weakening further to Rp. 14,200 / US $, before heading to Rp. 14,240 to 14,260 / US $, which is the 50 MA range. As long as it does not pass the 50 MA, the rupee still has a chance to strengthen this week. .
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