[ad_1]
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The World Bank reviews Indonesia’s economic growth. Where the real growth of RI’s PBD will be -2.2% in 2020.
In the report Indonesia’s Economic Outlook in December 2020: Towards a Safe and Fast RecoveryThe World Bank indicated that RI will end this year in recession. “The first time in two decades,” the report said on Friday (12/18/2020).
This projection is the last of the previous September -1.6%. While he said the economy had started to recover from a significant second-quarter contraction of -5.3%, the recovery was uneven across all sectors.
Sectors with high contact intensity, such as jobs that are difficult to perform over long distances and that depend on direct interaction with customers (transportation, hotels, wholesale and retail, construction, manufacturing) are particularly affected. The World Bank said it had partially recovered.
Sectors with less contact intensity, such as finance, education, telecommunications and information, were able to survive better. Sectors exposed to high external demand, such as mining and manufacturing, were somewhat protected by the recovery in world trade and an increase in the prices of some raw materials from their lows in mid-2020.
Several labor market indicators are significantly weaker than before the crisis. The World Bank assessed that the monetary policy response to the crisis was already strong, but had macroeconomic risks that needed to be managed.
The fiscal response to save lives and jobs, as well as to stimulate recovery, is already very real. Although relatively low compared to neighboring countries, public debt is increasing and fiscal space runs the risk of tightening if reforms are not implemented.
“This reflects a weaker-than-expected recovery in the third and part of the fourth quarter and restrictions on mobility and social distancing that will persist amid the increase in Covid-19 cases,” the report said.
Even so, in 2021, the World Bank predicts a positive economy of 4.4%. In 2020, the economy will also grow 4.8%.
“However, growth could fall to 3.1% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022 in the adverse scenario (downward scenario) of increased mobility and severe social constraints in Indonesia, weaker global growth and commodity prices, “the report wrote. again.
“Indonesia’s medium-term growth performance is highly dependent on overcoming the potential negative impact of the crisis on investment, productivity and human capital. This requires improving the effectiveness of the crisis response and structural reforms. to raise growth potential. “
(Head to head)
