Biden wins the US presidential election, but what happens if Trump refuses to leave the White House?

In the 244-year history of the United States, no president has ever refused to leave the White House after losing an election.

An orderly, legal, and peaceful transfer of power is one of the hallmarks of American democracy.

So when Donald Trump declared that he refused to accept the defeat of Joe Biden, it created a situation that had never happened before and that was disturbing to the people of the United States.

Then, analysts are challenged to formulate a series of scenarios that they did not think would happen.

Trump is playing golf outside of Washington DC when several major American media projects project a victory for Biden on November 7.

A moment later, Trump’s campaign team issued a statement stating that “the election is far from over.”

“We all know that Joe Biden is in a hurry to emerge as the winner by mistake, and why his allies in the media are trying to help him: they don’t want the truth revealed,” he said in a statement.

“The simple fact is that the election is far from over,” the statement continued, noting that Trump would continue to challenge the election results through various lawsuits accusing him of fraud.

The US constitution clearly states that the president’s term ends “at noon on January 20.”

Joe Biden is projected to win in multiple states, allowing him to garner 270 votes in the Electoral College system. Therefore, you have the right to serve as president for the next four years.

As for Donald Trump, he still has legal powers that he can use to challenge the election results.

However, if there are no dramatic events in court in the near future and the evidence of irregularities in the election that he has mentioned turns out to be null, the new president will take office on January 20 and Trump will have to resign.

During his campaign, Trump has bluntly warned that he will not accept defeat.

He repeatedly said that he was determined to stay in power, regardless of what the officials of the general electoral commission said.

He even indicated that the only way he could lose was if there was cheating.

Since then, various circles in the United States have begun to discuss what will happen if Trump realizes his threat and tries to hold on to power.

This hypothesis was even put forward by Joe Biden while campaigning.

In a televised interview on June 11, comedian Trevor Noah asked Biden if he had thought about the possibility that Trump would refuse to leave the White House if he lost the election.

“Yes, I have thought about it,” Biden responded, adding that he believed that in that situation the military would have the authority to expel Trump from the White House.

Biden’s belief that voters, not candidates, determine the outcome of elections was confirmed by his campaign team on Friday (06/11):

“The American people will decide this election and the United States government is very capable of escorting the advance out of the White House.”

It could be the U.S. Marshal or the Presidential Security Service in charge of keeping Trump out of the president’s residence.

The Presidential Security Service or Secret Service is an institution that is not only responsible for presidential security, but also has a legal obligation to protect all former presidents.

The institution will continue to protect Trump after January 20.

Since the projection of Biden’s victory in the US elections became clear and his victory will be announced, the Secret Service has increased security against the president-elect.

In fact, safeguarding Biden has reached the level of “presidential security,” even though Trump insists the Democratic Party has lost.

If the most extreme situation occurs, and Trump continues to refuse to leave the White House, it may be necessary to assess the loyalty of the security forces to the president.

The BBC asked several experts if it was possible that Trump was trying to use the country’s security forces to illegally maintain power.

“It will be difficult and will destroy the essential norms for a president to abuse power to hold office after appearing to have lost an election.

“However, it is not inconceivable,” Professor Dakota Rudesill, an expert on national security law and policy affiliated with Ohio State University in the United States, told the BBC.

“This action will inflict enormous damage to the country, to important principles of civil-military relations and to the future of democracy in the world,” he added, warning.

However, Rudesill said that in his opinion, the Trump scenario of defending power and backing the security forces is unlikely to occur.

“Military personnel pledge allegiance to the constitution, not current politicians.

“And the officer with the highest military position in the country, General Mark Milley as Joint Chief of Staff, has repeatedly said that the military has no role in these elections.”

Professor Rudesill is not the only expert studying this topic. Another expert is Keisha Blaine, a professor at the University of Pittsburgh who specializes in the study of social protest movements.

“The fact that we have to ask ourselves whether the Armed Forces will intervene in the elections reveals a lot about the terrible conditions in our country,” he told the BBC.

“Four years ago, many Americans did not think about this. However, after seeing Trump deploy federal personnel [dalam kericuhan] in Portland and Washington in recent months, this has been a major concern.

“In my opinion, this scenario is not going to happen, but we cannot rule out that it is a serious possibility considering what happened this year,” he said.

As a series of protests erupt alongside the anti-racism movement in the middle of this year, Trump is considering deploying the military to disperse the demonstrations.

June 5, every day the New York Times claims that General Miller convinced Trump not to enact the Dissidence Act of 1807 to deploy an active force to quell a series of protests.

The newspaper wrote that the law was “a line the US military says they would not cross, even if the president ordered it.”

In the end, Trump ordered the deployment of the National Guard, which, depending on the circumstances, could act under the jurisdiction of the president and / or state governors.

Non-military security forces personnel under the authority of the Department of Homeland Security also participated in the crackdown on a series of demonstrations in Washington, Portland and several other cities.

From that incident, some have speculated that in the event of an election-related crisis, Trump could potentially deploy armed personnel from non-military units.

However, if the military is supposed to be unwilling to deploy to defend Trump’s office, it is hard to imagine that Trump could successfully maintain power in the White House.

Professor Rudesill admits that he is concerned about these scenarios.

“I have written about the possibility that President Trump might try to use an executive order, or that the Department of Justice, which his political allies control, might try to issue an ‘order,’ indicating that the Executive Authority should consider Trump the winner of a disputed election, “Rudesill told the BBC.

However, it warned that the move was “extremely inappropriate and unacceptable.”

“Ordering the military to continue saluting the president beyond his term at noon on January 20 will put the military in an unlikely situation,” he said.

“Half the population in this country and many others in the world would think that the apolitical US military has taken a partisan position. The military should never accept such an order,” said Professor Rudesill.

And, in addition to the extreme conditions in which the autonomy of the security forces is at stake due to partisan disputes, others have warned that the current political situation may lead to violence in other areas.

A situation in which the losing candidate refuses to accept defeat could raise “the possibility of serious civil unrest,” Keisha Blaine told the BBC.

The president’s rhetoric “has increased the likelihood of protests and even violence,” he said.

The situation in several US cities in recent months, when protesters persistently expressed support for the president, and at a time when radical opposition groups emerged together, some of which are also armed, is a reminder of the potential violence that has created political tensions in the United States.