[ad_1]
Jakarta –
The goal is in sight. Anything can happen in the 2020 US election, which is an overwhelming and sometimes exhausting process.
There are three scenarios that are likely to occur, although there are actually four, but I will discuss them later.
After a long period of observing President Donald Trump’s behavior in reporting on his efforts to buy Greenland, and when his citizens refused, the president canceled the state visit in revenge; knowing that he paid a porn star before the last election; He was in Helsinki and I heard him say that he trusted Russian President Vladimir Putin more than his own intelligence agency; to be called “another beauty” just because I said I’m from the BBC. I really realize that anything can happen in the 2020 United States presidential election.
Here are three possible scenarios:
1. Biden wins easily
The first scenario is that the poll shows an accurate result and Joe Biden wins easily and comfortably without interruption on Tuesday night.
Despite all the chaos and uproar in the 2020 campaign, which is very different from four years ago, national and state polls, which determine election results, have always yielded consistent results. There was no significant change in the numbers.
Biden is far superior nationally and is the smallest only in the states of Florida, Arizona and North Carolina, and a similar margin in the northern industrial states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
If you visit the FiveThirtyEight blog, which records the average results of all major opinion polls, they say that there has been a 0.1% adjustment in voting competition amid the predictions through Nov. 2, Biden is up 8.4% at 51.8% versus Trump 43.3%.
Elections in the United States, long lines to vote (Getty Images)
When we report the results of the quick count, it is usually the error limit (error range) is at 3%. That is, the 0.1% change during the last few weeks will have no effect. So if the results of the quick count on Tuesday night match the results of the actual calculation, I won’t be the least bit surprised.
2. Trump’s surprise victory
What brings me to the second possibility as I reflect on the events of 2016 (although I can explain that this is not entirely true) is that the poll was wrong and that Donald Trump will ultimately win a second time. The key to Trump’s success is what happened in Pennsylvania and Florida.
No one believed that polls showing Biden three or four points ahead in Florida, the competition was much tougher. And in 2020, Trump has much more support from Latino groups than in 2016.
Likewise, in Pennsylvania, where white working-class citizens in the west of the state can be a factor in pushing the president over the threshold. electoral College.
In this limited Covid-19 election, I was in Florida, Ohio, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia. And wherever I go, I will find Trump supporters who not only love the 45th president, they adore him.
And Trump’s campaign calculations are as if in 2016 they brought a lot of people ‘off the pollsters’ networks and radars’ to vote.
This method is also shown in the intelligent mass mobilization action of President Trump, on the other hand the Democrats accuse the effort of making thousands of people come together and there is no social distancing during the pandemic.
To attend this event, all participants must register online. online, then it goes through a sophisticated data mining operation to see if it is on the voter list, and if not, the participant will be registered.
As a result, many people have registered and are eligible to vote amid intense electoral competition. Trump has removed the barrier for his supporters to vote.
Another reason Trump’s victory won’t surprise me is because Joe Biden is not an inspiring activist.
fake images
If anyone represents an old guard, it is him, Biden. The aging process was cruel to everyone, but Trump seemed much more energetic and energetic than Biden, despite only three years to go.
Biden did not sell “hope” of borrowing Barack Obama’s catchphrase in 2008. All he has to offer is “no” (no) no for Donald Trump.
But the meaning of “no” in 2020 is very strong.
There is a wave of “negative alignments” that seem to be the determining factor in this choice.
That means, not because people want Biden, but because they are fed up with Trump’s noisy presidency and deeply divided America.
3. Surprise wins for Biden
The third scenario is the same as the second, the quick count results are incorrect. But Joe Biden didn’t just win, he won big.
They are explosive elections, similar to Ronald Reagan’s victory over Jimmy Carter in 1980. Or George HW Bush’s victory over Michael Dukakis in 1988.
In the final week of the campaign, President Trump faced an increase in coronavirus cases to its highest level, with an increase in the number of hospitalized patients and an increase in deaths of up to 1,000 a day. The stock market is also having its worst week since March, a barometer of economic health that matters to the president.
Unlike the 2016 campaign, when Donald Trump had a very clear message for the American people: wanting to build a wall, wanting to bar Muslims from entering the United States, wanting to renegotiate trade agreements, wanting to restore manufacturing, by 2020 he had Difficulty articulating your vision for your period. second.
So if the “boom” happens, Biden will not only win the states I listed in the first scenario, but he will also take over to take Texas (Texas!), Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, maybe even South Carolina.
The odds are slim, in fact. But if you follow the poll results, the initial voting pattern and the Democrat’s approach to pushing the campaign forward, and the incredible increase in new voter turnout, then such a victory is not impossible.
…Y one more The results are probably won’t happen (but this year 2020)
I mentioned at the beginning that there is a possible fourth scenario. And don’t ask me to discuss this mechanism or its consequences, but rather the way Nebraska divides the votes. electoral Collegeit is conceivable that in the race for 270 votes electoral College the magic figure that made him president, we ended up with Biden and Trump both getting 269 electoral votes.
And after billions of dollars have been spent, America will end up in a total stalemate, relentless competition, and trapped in legal uncertainty.
It has never happened before, and I would say that it is almost impossible.
But it’s impossible? Well, don’t forget it’s 2020.
(ita / ita)
