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Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Eyes from all corners of the world are currently on the United States (USA). Because Uncle Sam’s country will hold presidential elections (Pilpres) in less than 24 hours, on November 3, US time.
Of course, the whole world, including investors, is wondering who will lead the country with the largest economy in the world.
Well, there are two main candidates, of course the head of the Republican Party, real estate mogul Donald Trump and his running mate Mike Pence, while their competitors are from the Democratic Party, the era of former US Vice President Barack Obama, namely Joe Biden. and her running mate Kamala Harris.
In recent days, Biden’s lead has widened especially in the three major states (Rust Belt) that Trump won 4 years ago, according to a Reuters / Ipsos poll released on Sunday.
Biden led Trump by 10 percentage points in Wisconsin and Michigan, and 7 points ahead in Pennsylvania.
Biden also leads Trump in all three states in all weekly Reuters / Ipsos polls that begin in mid-September, and his lead has increased in all states over the past 2 weeks.
Reuters / Ipsos is currently conducting voter polls in six states – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona – which will play a key role in deciding whether Trump wins a second term or is replaced by Biden. .
State victory battlefield states where there are many undecided voters in that state it becomes very important in the US presidential election because the winner of the US presidential election is not determined by popular votes rather, the couple that wins in the most states will get the total electoral votes the state.
All rightIn fact, polls have said Joe Biden is more likely to be elected than former real estate mogul Donald Trump.
However, what are the prospects for the two candidates on their ability to move the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG)?
Which pair, if chosen, will benefit the local index the most?
In fact, both partners have their own advantages and disadvantages for domestic investors.
From Donald Trump’s point of view, the GOP’s policy of cutting all taxes, including corporate taxes, makes big business happy.
So there is no doubt that during Trump’s leadership before the Covid-19 attack, the Wall Street benchmark flew compared to President Obama’s leadership because the tax burden the company had to pay would decrease if the president were a person. Republican.
Of course, if Wall Street remains green, it will cross the ocean and bring a positive impact to the local stock market, at least psychologically.
But when Trump runs it with his jargon ‘America firstSo the trade war between the United States and China is certain to continue.
Even not just China, Trump’s attitude that always puts America’s interests first, of course Trump is ready to carry out a trade war with any country deemed harmful to America.
With trade war tensions remaining high, the global economy will have a hard time recovering after the coronavirus pandemic onslaught and it’s a negative sentiment for the capital market.
In fact, relations between the United States and Indonesia are not very bad.
The proof is that the US government under President Donald Trump finally extended the installation of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) with Indonesia on Saturday (10/31/2020). GSPini makes Indonesian products easier to enter and more competitive in the US market.
 Photo: Debate of the US presidential candidate between Republican Donald Trump and his Democratic opponent Joe Biden. (AP Photo / Morry Gash, Pool)Former Vice President of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden answers a question as President Donald Trump listens during the second and final presidential debate on Thursday, Oct. 22, 2020, at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee (AP Photo / Morry Gash, Pool). |
The GSP is a commercial facility for exemption from import tariffs that has been unilaterally granted by the United States government to developing countries in the world since 1974. Indonesia first received the facilities of the GSP from the United States in 1980.
Therefore, it is highly likely that even if Trump is re-elected, Indonesia will remain safe from the threat of a trade war with the United States.
But it should be noted that Trump’s nature is frequent tantrum And it’s hard to guess, but it carries the risk that Trump will one day increase tariffs and tariffs on Indonesian goods.
Furthermore, President Trump’s difficulty in predicting his behavior is also sometimes like a double-edged sword, not infrequently provoked (cheep) Mr. Trump caused the stock market to crash in no time. Remember that uncertainty is the main enemy of the capital market.
While when Joe Biden is re-elected, of course, there are also his own advantages and disadvantages.
The positive sentiment for the global capital market if Biden is elected, of course, with Biden’s attitude that tends to be more lenient towards China and other countries, of course, opens the opportunity for the trade war to end soon.
However, the custom of Democratic Party leaders is of course to raise taxes, especially corporate taxes, so of course senior corporate officials, both public and private, as well as investors, will not be happy. with this policy.
The sectors that will be affected are, of course, the sectors with products that will be exported or imported from the US, such as palm oil commodities, one of which is Uncle Sam’s main buyer. If Trump launches a trade war with Indonesia, this commodity could be the victim of an increase in entry tariffs. high.
In addition, it is also interesting to look at the shares of MNC Group because as is known the owner of this conglomerate is Hary Tanoesudibjo, who has his own close relationship with Donald Trump.
In 2016, when Trump was elected president of the United States, Hary Tanoe was invited to the inauguration event of President Trump.
CNBC INDONESIA INVESTIGATION TEAM
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