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Surabaya, CNN Indonesia –
Poltracking Indonesia poll results indicated that Surabaya’s pair of candidates for mayor and deputy mayor was number 2 Machfud Arifin-Mujiaman outperformed candidate pair number 1 Eri Cahyadi-Armuji.
Tri Rismaharani’s voting factor and supporting political parties are said to have contributed to this advantage.
In the survey, Machfud-Mujiaman obtained 51.7 percent; Eri-Armuji obtained 34.1 percent; 5.0 percent kept their responses secret; Y undecided voters 9.2 percent.
“This poll establishes that the eligibility of candidate Machfud-Mujiaman is higher than that of candidate Eri-Armuji,” Masduri, Poltracking Indonesia Research Manager, said in a statement from the poll in Surabaya on Monday (2/11).
The survey was conducted during the period from October 19 to 23, 2020 using the method multistage stratified random sampling against 1200 samples. The margin of error is 2.8 percent, with a 95 percent confidence level.
Poltracking Indonesia also calculates the eligibility of each candidate, if they are not matched. As a result, Machfud, who is a former East Java regional police chief, again outperformed Eri with 51.9 percent versus 34.3 percent, and 5 percent of those surveyed kept their answers secret.
“Machfud’s eligibility started to show an increase in March 2020 to October 2020,” he said.
Also, Mujiaman is superior with 47.5 percent compared to Armuji with 30.7 percent in terms of mayoral candidate eligibility.
“On behalf of the deputy mayor candidate, Mujiaman has a higher eligibility than Armuji,” he said.
With these results, Masduri said that the Machfud-Mujiaman candidate pair had the potential to win the 2020 Surabaya Pilkada on December 9.
“If you look at the trends of each candidate, Machfud-Mujiaman has the potential to contest the Surabaya Pilkada. However, there is still a month left for each of them to show their potential to attract undecided voters, “he said.
Risk factor
Masduri said that the superiority of Machfud-Mujiaman cannot be separated from two factors. First, the support of the majority of the current mayor-deputy mayor of Surabaya, Tri Rismaharini-Whisnu Sakti Buana.
According to the survey results, 49.4 percent of Risma voters in the 2015 Surabaya regional main elections are now more inclined to vote for the number 2 candidate pair.
Meanwhile, Risma voters who elected Eri-Armuji were just 37.8 percent. The rest, kept the answers secret and did not respond.
“Many Risma-Whisnu voters in the 2015 Pilkada chose the Machfud-Mujiaman couple, which amounts to 49.4 percent,” Masduri said.
 Infographic of the party that violates the Crown Protocol in Pilkada. (Photo: CNN Indonesia / Fajrian) |
The same was also found in voters who opposed Risma in the 2015 Surabaya Pilkada, namely Rasiyo-Lucy Kurniasari. He said that 70.7 percent preferred Machfud-Mujiaman and 19.5 percent chose Eri-Armuji.
“Similarly, for the voters who chose Rasiyo-Lucy, the majority chose the Machfud-Mujiaman pair of candidates,” he said.
Still, Masudri did not want to speculate too much about the similarity of the parties supporting Risma and Eri.
“I’m not going to comment too far, but that’s a picture of voter perceptions below. It is not a question of anomaly, but a question of support. Is it then related to the public election in 2015?
The second factor, he said, was that Machfud-Mujiaman had strong support from political parties.
“Machfud-Mujiaman, who is promoted by many parties, has a high electoral strength. You can see that the majority of voters from the PKB, Gerindra, Democrat, Golkar, PKS, NasDem, PAN and PPP parties seem solid in the election of Machfud-Mujiaman, ”he said.
“The voters of the PDIP, who are in fact the main supporting party, and the PSI, which is the party that supports the Eri-Armuji couple, also look solid in electing Eri Cahyadi-Armuji,” he added.
The 2020 Surabaya Pilkada is known to have been attended by two pairs of candidates, namely, candidate number 1, Eri Cahyadi-Armuji, and candidate pair number 2, Machfud Arifin-Mujiaman Sukirno.
 Infographic list of conflict-prone areas in Pilkada. (Photo: CNN Indonesia / Basith Subastian) |
Eri Cahyadi – Armuji is promoted by PDIP and PSI. Meanwhile, Machfud Arifin – Mujiaman was promoted by PKS, PKB, PPP, NasDem, Golkar, Democrat, Gerindra and PAN.
Earlier, Eri Cahyadi’s nomination had sparked protests from supporters of Wishnu Sakti, who was also slated as a candidate for mayor of Surabaya by the PDIP.
Poltracking results differ from other survey results. The Populi Center polling institute said Eri-Armuji’s eligibility reached 41 percent, while Machfud-Mujiaman won 37.7 percent. As for those who did not respond, 21.3 percent.
(frd / arh)
[Gambas:Video CNN]
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