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KOMPAS.com- Based on the monitoring of global climate anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean until the end of September 2020, it shows the development of the La Niña climate anomaly.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index shows that the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern Pacific region has been cold for the last six decades with anomalous values that have exceeded minus 0.5 degrees Celsius.
According to the Deputy Director of Climatology of the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) Herizal, M.Si, the index shows the threshold for the La Niña category, in a press release to Kompas.com, Saturday (03/10/2020).
The development of the anomalous value of the sea surface temperature in the region was minus 0.6 degrees Celsius in August and minus 0.9 degrees Celsius in September 2020, respectively.
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Herizal said that BMKG and other climate service centers such as NOAA (United States), BoM (Australia), JMA (Japan) estimate that La Niña may continue to develop until it reaches moderate La Niña intensity by the end of 2020.
“It is expected to begin to decline in January-February 2021 and end around March-April 2021,” Herizal explained.
Based on historical La Niña records in Indonesia, Herizal said, it could lead to an increase in the cumulative amount of monthly rainfall up to 40 percent above normal.
“However, the impact of La Niña is not uniform across Indonesia,” he said.
In October-November, increased monthly rainfall due to this weather anomaly can occur in almost all regions of Indonesia except Sumatra.
Herizal added that from December 2020 to February 2021, there could be an increase in rainfall due to La Niña in East Kalimantan, Sulawesi, North Maluku and Papua.
Meanwhile, this October, various seasonal areas in Indonesia are expected to enter the rainy season, including the following regions.
- Aceh East Coast
- Riau (in part)
- Jambi
- South Sumatra
- Bangka Island
- Lampung
- Banten
- West Java (part)
- Central Java (in part)
- East Java (a small part)
- West Kalimantan (part)
- Central Kalimantan (part)
- South Borneo
- East Kalimantan (part)
- North Kalimantan (part)
- Sulawesi (a small part)
- North Maluku
- West Nusa Tenggara (a small part)
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BMKG appealed to stakeholders to be more optimal in carrying out integrated water management from upstream to downstream.
For example, preparing the capacity of rivers and canals to anticipate excess water discharge.
This is because increased rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season accompanied by increased accumulated rainfall due to La Niña has the potential to trigger hydro-meteorological disasters in Indonesia, such as floods and landslides.