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Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia– The island of Java is reported to have the potential to be hit by a tsunami of up to 20 meters in the south of the island of Java. In fact, it is estimated that giant ocean waves only take 20 minutes to reach shore.
Daryono, director of Earthquake and Tsunami Mitigation at BMKG, said the threat was not only in the Java region, but also in other areas of Indonesia because there were 13 scattered megathrusts.
“All of these have megathrust zones, and they all have potential and history, and need to prepare for mitigation. BMKG here is always ready to provide tsunami early warnings, educate the public and provide means to expand tsunami early warning information,” Daryono told CNBC Indonesia on Monday (09/28/2020).
According to BMKG data, 13 megathrusts in Indonesia spread from Aceh to Papua. The details are the Aceh-Andaman, Nias-Simelue, Batu, Mentawai Siberut and Mentawai-Pagai megathrusts.
Next are the Enggano megathrust, the Sunda Strait, West Java-Central Java, East Java, and Sumba. Next is the megatrust of North Sulawesi, the Philippines and Papua.
Daryono said there are several areas that have historically had mega earthquakes, but some have not. For example, western Sumatra in Mentawai, southern Banten and the Sunda Strait, southeast Java, southern Bali, and northern Maluku, between Sulawesi, Papua and including Banda, are areas where it has not occurred. an earthquake in a long time.
“But I don’t know when it happened, there must be concrete mitigation efforts,” he said.
Based on official BMKG information cited from CNN Indonesia, large earthquakes with magnitudes between 7.0 and 7.9 originating in the megathrust area south of Java have occurred 8 times, namely: 1903 (M7.9), 1921 (M7.5) , 1937 (M7.2), 1981 (M7.0), 1994 (M7.6), 2006 (M7.8) and 2009 (M7.3)
Meanwhile, devastating earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or more originating in the southern megafusion area of Java have occurred 3 times, namely in 1780 (M8.5), 1859 (M8.5) and 1943 (M8, one). Daryono emphasized that there had not been an earthquake with a strength of M9.0 or higher in southern Java.
Daryono said that this latest investigation is quite comprehensive because it involves several scientific disciplines, so the model presented is more accurate as a reference for mitigation. He stressed that the experts created this worst-case scenario not out of fear, but for mitigation purposes.
“But sadly, some people think that this is a threat in the near future that will become misleading. In fact, this is for mitigation, these kinds of references are necessary, because the reference for mitigation efforts is better when describing the worst case scenario. That will encourage us to make more serious and concrete efforts, “he said.
Daryono emphasized that the potential exists and is real, but he doesn’t know when it happened. This is what distinguishes potential and predictive studies.
“This is a potential study, so we do not know when it will happen so in this uncertainty we still have time to carry out mitigation efforts, the concrete ones are education, land use planning, early detection and self-evacuation itself,” he said.
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