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Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Bandung Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has revealed a new finding regarding the possibility of an earthquake and a tsunami. In collaboration with ITB, the research claims that a public address earthquake located on the Eurasian plate in the Java Off Sea will have the potential to cause a tsunami of up to 20 meters towards the mainland.
Tsunami expert from the Agency for the Evaluation and Application of Technology (BPPT) Widjo Kongko said that the results of this research and investigation also confirmed this. According to him, this potential has been calculated from previous studies.
“Yes, friends of BMKG and ITB have investigated that there will be the potential threat of a large earthquake and tsunami. This is in the subduction zone of southern Java,” Widjo said when contacted by CNBC Indonesia on Saturday (26 / 9/2020).
Referring to the Wichman catalog, Widjo revealed that the possibility of a major earthquake and tsunami may not be long. This is based on 400 to 500 year repeats of major earthquakes that occurred in the southern subduction zone of Java.
A mega earthquake that has the potential to cause a tsunami of up to 20 meters can also occur at any time. Even so, the height of the tsunami can vary in West Java as well as in East Java and Sumatra.
So how to prevent it, Widjo said that this earthquake, which has tsunami potential, does not yet have a detection tool.
For that, he advised people who live in coastal areas or around the coast to be careful.
“We must bear in mind that this earthquake and tsunami is a cycle, so those who live on the coast must be prepared and carefully,” he explained.
BMKG Director Dwikorita Karnawati said Indonesia’s preparation to face the potential of megatrust had already begun in 2008. BMKG has operated a Tsunami Early Warning and Monitoring System to anticipate the impact of the Megathrust earthquake that has occurred in Aceh. At that time, the arrival time of the tsunami waves at the nearest beach was approximately 20 minutes.
“The system being built is operated using the Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) to quickly calculate the parameters, magnitudes and locations of the earthquake’s hypocenter, which can then be calculated (estimated) automatically using mathematical models the possible tsunami events. “Dwikorita said when contacted by CNBC Indonesia on Friday (09/25/2020).
In this way, the information on earthquake events and tsunami early warning can be automatically disseminated via BNPB, BPBD, television and other information dissemination modes, SMS, telephone or fax, social media, BMKG information applications. So within 3-5 minutes after the earthquake occurred.
“This means there are still 15 to 17 minutes left before the estimated arrival of a tsunami wave for evacuation,” he said.
However, he emphasized that the existence of this Early Warning and Investigation System was not enough to truly protect the community from the threat of a tsunami. There must still be the willingness of the community and local government to respond to this Early Warning quickly and accurately, including when preparing evacuation facilities and infrastructure.
“Other than that, the public should continue to be educated to be more aware of the dangers of the earthquake and tsunami in their area,” he said.
Dwikorita also explained that the research conducted was a multidisciplinary data, knowledge and interagency study to assess the potential for earthquakes to occur in the seismic gap zone at the source of the Megathrust South Java earthquake. Besides that, it also models the impact of the Megathrust earthquake in the form of the height of the tsunami waves on the southern coast of Java.
“Therefore, the area of the seismic gap in the Megathrust earthquake origin zone is used as input in tsunami modeling using various scenarios; scenario 1 if only the southern Megathtust segment of West Java is broken,” he said.
Scenario 2 if only the southern segment of East Java Megatrust breaks, then the worst case scenario if these two segments split together can produce a Mw magnitude of 9.1. Based on this model, it can trigger a tsunami with a maximum height of 20 meters in the southern part of West Java (more precisely in southern Banten) and 12 meters in southern East Java, with an average tsunami height of 4 ,5 meters.
“According to the results of the investigation, the arrival time of the tsunami waves was about 20 minutes,” he said.
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