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Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – In the last week, the increase in confirmed positive cases of Covid-19 in Indonesia has reached 4,000 cases, although it is not yet the peak of the first wave. So when will the crown peak come in Indonesia?
Professor of Statistics at Gajah Mada University (UGM) Prof. Dr. rer.nat. Dedi Rosadi, S.Si., MSc along with his team are trying to predict the peak of the pandemic in Indonesia. However, he warned that the completion of the crown case in Indonesia must be government intervention and community discipline.
“The end of the pandemic really depends on the government’s efforts to control the behavior of the spread of the Covid-19 disease,” Dedi Rosadi was quoted as saying on the official UGM website, on Friday (9/25/2020).
To predict the peak of the corona pandemic in Indonesia, Professor Dedi Rosadi collaborated with UGM FMIPA alumni Joko Kristadi and Fidelis Dipenogoro using the Probabilistic Data Driven Model (PDDM).
As a result, the peak of the pandemic in Indonesia will be in mid-November to December 2020 and will end in late May 2021. From this model, the total estimate of positive cases in Indonesia is predicted to be at least 700,000 cases.
Dedi Rosadi also passed on a number of important notes that deserve attention at this time. First, it is necessary to control the spread of Covid-19 optimally by intensifying the 3T, that is, the tracing, testing and treatment in the main epicenter of Indonesia. Namely, Jakarta, West Java, East Java, Central Java, Banten, and South Sulawesi.
Likewise, in other provinces it is also necessary to control the spread more optimally, further intensifying the 3Q movement.
Earlier, University of Indonesia epidemic expert Pandu Riono said that currently this is not the crown peak in Indonesia. Even he couldn’t predict the peak of a pandemic. In fact, he called this condition the endless ride of the first wave.
“The target is Pak Jokowi, not the government. The target must be calculated correctly. It must be translated into operational activities of the program,” he said again.
[Gambas:Video CNBC](roy / sef)
