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Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Finance Minister Sri Mulyani once warned that Indonesia would experience an economic contraction in the third quarter of 2020. Although it is not as deep as the second quarter, he still appreciates that it is still vigilant. So what is the projection of Indonesia’s economic growth with the PSBB, on September 14?
In total, DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan has decided that large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) will come into effect on September 14, 2020.
Several economists believe that, in the third quarter of 2020, Indonesia will certainly enter the brink of economic recession.
“In the third quarter with PSBB or without PSBB, a recession is almost certain. Because the situation is quite difficult in the third quarter of 2020, unlike the previous one”, said the economist of the University of Indonesia (UI) Fithra Faisal to CNBC Indonesia, on Thursday (9/10/2020).
However, according to Fithra, the PSBB is really necessary amid the growing number of positive Covid-19 cases, especially in Jakarta.
Therefore, it is expected that the existence of this PSBB can make the economy recover quickly, because to reactivate the economy in the middle of this pandemic, the health variable must first be addressed.
“When [kurva] The pandemic is flat, so we can talk about economic growth. If not, it will continue, “Fithra explained.
Fithra is also optimistic that economic growth will be able to recover. This can be seen in the increase in the Manufacturing Purchasing Index (PMI), which in August rose to 50.8 compared to July, which was 46.9, and an increase in the value of exports, as well as in the trade balance that showed a surplus in the last month. .
Therefore, Fithra also believes that Indonesia is still far from an economic depression. “I think so [jauh dari depresi]. Because what causes a recession or negative economic growth is not the economic fundamentals. But it’s more about covid-19, “Fithra said.
BCA chief economist David Sumual also conveyed a similar sentiment. According to David, without further PSBB, economic growth in the third quarter of 2020 is projected to be negative. Indonesia is also experiencing a recession, it is commonplace.
David projects that economic growth will be in the range of -1% to -3%.
“It is not strange because, according to the World Bank, 93% of the world’s countries will go into recession. Therefore, it is not surprising that Indonesia is also in recession. Because developed countries are expected to go into recession,” he said. David.
Economic growth is also projected to contract, not only in the third quarter of 2020, but also in the fourth quarter of 2020. This was conveyed by Josua Pardede, Vice President Economist at Bank Permata.
Josua projects that economic growth in the third quarter of 2020 will be in the range of -3% year-on-year (year-on-year). Given the impact of the relaxation of the PSBB, it has occurred since June.
The forecast for economic growth in the third quarter of 2020, Josua said, was indicated by various high-frequency data such as the consumer confidence index (IKK), retail sales and manufacturing PMI, which showed an increasing trend since the end of the second quarter of 2020 to mid-third quarter of 2020.
Meanwhile, projected economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 has the potential to be lower than previous estimates. Where before, if there was no PSBB again, then economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 has the potential to grow positively.
“With the condition of PSBB that will restart on September 14, it is estimated that the economic recovery in the fourth quarter of 2020 will be contained. Therefore, it is estimated that growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 will continue to contract,” explained Josua to CNBC Indonesia, Thursday (10/9/2020)
Jakarta still ranks first in the number of additional positive cases nationwide.
According to data on patient cases with Covid-19 from the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia today, Thursday, September 10, 2020 at 12.00 WIB, the total number of additional positive cases in DKI reached 1,274 people, so the accumulation of positive cases in DKI Jakarta to date is 50,671 cases.
As for the accumulation of positive cases of the corona virus (Covid-19) in Indonesia as of Thursday (10/9/2020), there were 3,861 additional new cases compared to the previous day. So now the total number of Covid-19 positive patients in Indonesia is 207,203 people.
From the accumulated 207,203 to Thursday (10/9/2020), 147,510 people were recovered and 8,456 people died.
[Gambas:Video CNBC]
(dru)
