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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – While the lessons of the 2016 campaign have never ruled out Donald Trump, his path to re-election narrows dramatically. One of the causes is the management of the Covid-19 pandemic.
According to a survey by RealClearPolitics, Trump currently trails Biden by an average of 9.7 percentage points across the country, and around 5-7 points in the major battle countries.
The challenges were further complicated when Trump rejected the idea of a virtual debate with Bidenpekan ahead. This eliminates one of the few remaining opportunities to change the trajectory of the competition.
“I don’t see how Donald Trump catches Joe Biden without two arguments,” Republican voting party Frank Luntz told Bloomberg Television quoted on Saturday (10/10/2020).
Compared to the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton enjoys a 5.3-point lead against Trump, on average, the same number of days before the election as four years ago.
But this time there were significant differences, including a much higher level of liking for Biden than Clinton enjoyed.
Biden’s competitiveness in some of the states Trump brought in in 2016, which could also reduce the chances of the president being reelected.
Trump may not have found a way to roll back this year, saying he would not leave office if he was not sure the outcome was fair. The polls could also exaggerate Biden’s lead a bit, if some of Trump’s voters went uncounted.
However, Democrats are increasingly hopeful that Biden’s lead is large enough to overcome shorter voting lapses or last-minute voting challenges.
Country surveys
Trump “owes” fewer than 80,000 voters in three Rust Belt states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, each of which contributed less than one percentage point.
Biden now leads Michigan with an average of 6.2 points, Pennsylvania with 7.1 points and Wisconsin with 5.5 points.
It is not easy to make direct comparisons between the 2016 and 2020 state elections, as pollsters conduct polls in different states with different frequencies from one election to the next.
“If public opinion polls are to be believed, now we will talk about Hillary Clinton’s re-election campaign,” said Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh.
“The media has to get out of the business of predicting the future because they are so bad at it,” he said.
Yet Trump is in more trouble now than he did four years ago. His recovery from Covid-19 has taken him out of the campaign for a whole week. That prevented him from raising funds directly.
Polls show Trump is losing the support of women, suburban voters and, more recently, voters over 50 who are unhappy with the government’s handling of the pandemic.
Elders were a key part of Trump’s support in 2016, but his efforts to build support on a law and order platform during the summer of civil unrest backfired.
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