China’s inability to push Indian troops into the Royal Line of Control (LAC) means that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ability to intimidate anyone has been reduced.
In a Newsweek op-ed by Gordon G Chang, a lawyer and commentator, the Chinese president has risked his future with the failed high-profile People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forays into more areas of LAC, the Indian border. and China.
The writer says that Xi is the “architect” of these aggressive moves towards India and the Chinese troops have unexpectedly failed.
The failures of the Chinese military in LAC will have consequences and give Xi an excuse to accelerate the pace of replacement of adversaries in the military with loyal elements.
Also read: China invokes the 1962 war to put India on the defensive. It won’t work | Analysis
However, these failures motivate Xi, who as chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party, is the leader of the PLA, to renew his attempt to launch another offensive against the Indian positions.
In early May, Chinese troops advanced south of LAC into three separate areas in Ladakh. With the border poorly demarcated, Chinese forces have breached Indian positions for years, especially after Xi was appointed the party’s secretary general in 2012.
Cleo Paskal of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Newsweek that the large-scale maneuvers in Tibet were not preparations for such a move.
In June, China and India participated in a violent confrontation in the Galwan Valley. Chinese troops killed 20 Indian soldiers in a premeditated move and the clash was the first deadly confrontation between the two countries in 45 years.
While the Chinese side is believed to have suffered 43 casualties in the Galwan clash, the number could exceed 60, according to Paskal.
At the end of last month, for the first time in half a century, India launched an offensive against China, regaining strategic points that the Chinese had recently seized. The offensive surprised the Chinese forces and they withdrew.
Chang, the writer, says that China’s subsequent efforts to counter India have proved ineffective. For now, Indian troops, in the southernmost of Ladakh’s three areas, are under his once-in-Chinese control.
“India is not giving the invaders a chance to improve. Both sides have just accused the other of violating decades-long rules of engagement by firing warning shots. However, it appears that the Chinese are the closest to the truth: Indian troops are showing a new boldness, ”says the author.
“The game has changed. You can say that the Indians are more aggressive or more aggressively defensive, but in fact they are bolder and better, ”Paskal told Newsweek.
According to Jayadeva Ranade, a former Indian intelligence official and now director of the New Delhi-based China Strategy and Analysis Center, Xi, who has now faced a setback, now needs a “victory” and could force more conflicts in Ladakh.
Richard Fisher of the Virginia-based International Center for Evaluation and Strategy told Newsweek that the Chinese, in that conflict, could launch “a joint mechanized war that they have been preparing for for 30 years.”
With the rapid build-up of Indian forces and his high readiness, Xi is unsure of the success he needs, especially as India has brought its own mechanized vehicles to Ladakh, according to Ranade.
“PLA leaders are beginning to see little option but to take offensive military action to avoid becoming victims of Xi’s internal terror,” says Fisher.
“What we are learning in 2020 is that Xi wants victories, and since the PLA is seen to have reached the required levels of force through rearmament and reorganization, Xi is increasingly willing to use the military,” adds Fisher.
Xi has shown that he is good at the political mobilization of the army and can spend a great deal of money on military equipment. He has also perfected the art of intimidating other countries. However, the Chinese president has yet to show his army in a fight and it is worth it.
“Unfortunately, it seems that China’s leader, who seemed invincible, now has something to prove. As a result, he seems absolutely determined to make his point by launching another attempt to break up India, ”Chang says, adding that other countries will recognize that the Chinese military is lacking.
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