Lalu Yadav wants to establish Tejaswi Yadav as the undisputed leader of non-BJP politics in Bihar.
By keeping the Mahagathbandhan less congested, Lalu wants to contest more than 60% of the seats in the state assembly. Their main rivals, BJP and JD (U) in alliance, will contest a much smaller number of seats.
- News18.com
- Last update: October 5, 2020 11:57 AM IST
- FOLLOW US:
Former MP Bhola Singh began his political journey as a Begusarai card communist in Bihar, also known as the Leningrad of the East. At the time of his death, he represented the same constituency in the Lok Sabha, but as a member of Parliament for the BJP.
Singh was a very practical man and a quintessential storyteller. To make a point, he would generously dive into anecdotes and draw on long sinuous analogies.
During a conversation one winter morning at his residence on Lodhi Road in Delhi, he went into great detail to explain the process of political succession in Indian politics. An intelligent ‘guru’ in the power game, he explained, tends to nurture the most depressed of his ‘shishyas’ for fear of losing control over his constituency. As was his custom, he slowly closed his eyes and ended the conversation with the parting shot. “… like the wild cat, which can attack one of its own litter if it tries to survive.”
The last three decades of Bihar politics since the Mandir-Mandal breakup have been dominated by three leaders or the three gurus: Lalu Yadav, Nitish Kumar and Ram Vilas Paswan – and Sushil Modi, if the role of the BJP were included alongside the Janata Dal (United States). All of these leaders took their first steps in politics during the Janata Movement. All were beneficiaries of the implosion of Congress in the heart states and the concomitant rise of identity politics.
But the whole world is a stage. And leaders make their entrances and exits. The end of the old political order that gives way to the new begins with the elections of this assembly in Bihar 2020.
Politics is entering a state of flux. No one knows how long the new shake will last. Can it be until the next election in 2025? It can be longer.
The winds of change will continue to blow until the new order – socio, economic and political – takes concrete form and crystallizes.
That is why most of the political parties are taking the upcoming elections more like semifinals. This is also precisely the reason why no party or leader wants to cede space and seats, to allies and adversaries, more than is necessary.
Lalu Yadav’s RJD has been in and out of power in Bihar since the days of Janata Dal in 1989. Whether in opposition or in power, Lalu has had the support of at least a quarter or more of the state electorate . The challenge now for his party and his son Tejaswi is not only to maintain this vote base, but to create a social coalition to regain power.
The problems with the RJD are clear. He wants to be the repository of all anti-NDA votes, and yet make sure that the seats awarded to friendly parties are not wasted. You must also ensure that you compete and win enough seats to maintain your position as a credible competitor to the NDA.
The last elections had shown that Mahagathbandhan’s allies get more from RJD than vice versa. It has been seen that the RJD vote is transferred to the allies, but the opposite does not happen. That is precisely the reason why RJD did not make much effort to retain Jeetaam Ram Manjhi’s Hindustan Avaam Morcha in the grand alliance.
Maha Dalits, or the most backward among the Dalits, is a special constituency created by Nitish Kumar in his effort to create a voting base for JD (U) outside the area of influence of both the BJP and the RJD. As such, the impact of leaders like Manjhi in transferring their votes outside of their own districts has been marginal.
Similarly, Kurmis and Koeries generally vote together. So Upendra Kushwaha’s efforts to create a separate space for him as the leader of the most backward caste have been a bit difficult. As part of the alliance led by JD (U), it has been relatively successful. But not outside.
That is why RJD sought to accommodate only those parties that can assist in the transfer of votes. Congress can be a huge spoiler for Lalu Yadav. The consolidation of the RJD minority is only effective with Congress on its side. The communist parties in Bihar have sources of influence and cadre support. They have the ability to get their support base to vote for the RJD, with which they are ideologically compatible. And then there is no guarantee that some of them will dare after the poll for greener pins.
And finally, but perhaps most importantly, the RJD in this election wants to establish Tejaswi Yadav as the undisputed leader of non-BJP politics in the state in anticipation of 2025 when Bihar politics would enter a new paradigm after 35 years. of musical chairs between Lalu and Nitish.
By keeping the Mahagathbandhan less congested, Lalu wants to contest more than 60% of the seats in the state assembly. Its main rivals, BJP and JD (U) in alliance, will contest a much smaller number of seats.
A decent strike rate can help the RJD emerge as the largest party in the assembly. That is precisely what Lalu is looking for.
.
