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Of all the family members who could eventually take the reins of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, his sister seems like the obvious choice.
Kim Yo Jong, in his early 30s, stood by his brother at summits with US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, sitting behind Vice President Mike Pence while representing North Korea at the Olympics. Winter 2018 and became the first immediate member of the ruling family to visit Seoul, where he delivered a personal message from his brother inviting South Korean President Moon Jae-in to a summit.
The biggest potential problem: She is a woman in a society rigidly controlled by men. While many North Korean observers say the bloodline is more important than gender, others are skeptical.
“Yo Jong’s role will probably be limited to one regent at most” due to North Korea’s feudal patriarchate, said Yoo Ho-yeol, who teaches North Korean studies at the University of Korea and previously advised the unification ministry South Korea and the defense ministry. “Not only the dominant male leadership, but also the common people there would resist a female leader.”
The question of whether Kim Yo Jong will become North Korea’s first female leader has suddenly become a central issue as questions about her brother’s health intensify. Kim Jong Un has not appeared in state media in two weeks, sparking a series of reports that suggest he may be disabled.
The Kim family dynasty has ruled North Korea for three generations since its founding after World War II, when the Soviet Union and the United States divided control of the Korean peninsula. During that time, he has built one of the world’s most vigorous personality cults, turning the dictatorship’s preeminent claim to legitimacy into a bloodline said to come from the sacred Mount Paektu, near the Chinese border.
When Kim Jong Un took power after his father’s death in 2011, the big question was whether a leader in his 20s could rule a country that revered antiquity. He soon exercised authority over geriatric generals and eliminated potential rivals: he executed his uncle and deputy, Jang Song Thaek, and was suspected of having ordered the murder of his exiled older half-brother, Kim Jong Nam, in Malaysia.
In many ways, Kim Yo Jong, who has spent almost a decade entangled in the state apparatus, has been better prepared to take on the role of top leadership. It could also surprise anyone who doubts his ability to run the country, according to Soo Kim, a Rand Corp. policy analyst who specializes in issues on the Korean peninsula.
“It begins and ends”
“I don’t think you need to worry about gaining acceptance as a leader by the people of North Korea under your Kim family’s bloodline,” said Soo Kim. “North Korea’s fate begins and ends with the Kim family.”
Kim’s other potential male heirs are younger or less experienced in the corridors of power in Pyongyang. His brother Kim Jong Chol has no official title and seems to be more interested in playing the guitar than in politics, while his nephew, Kim Han Sol, denounced the regime and is believed to be living abroad.
South Korean media reported that Kim Jong Un has a 10-year-old son, but none of his children has been officially mentioned in the state media. Thae Yong Ho, the former No. 2 at the North Korean embassy in London who defected to South Korea, said in a radio interview that a possible successor is Kim Pyong Il, the only surviving son of the North Korean founder. Kim Il Sung, who returned to the country last year after four decades abroad as a diplomat.
“Those who are serving Kim Jong Un are the first generation in their 60s to 80s, so there is at least a 30-year age gap with Yo Jong. In their eyes, Yo Jong is just a rookie,” said Thae. The same argument was made when Kim Jong Un took power, although his youth did not block his rise or control over the old guard.
Either way, Kim Yo Jong remains the most prominent heir. Born in 1988 or 1989, she was once a chubby-cheeked girl who loved to dance and was nicknamed “Princess Yo Jong” by her father, the late dictator Kim Jong Il, according to a Kim Jong Un biography titled “The Great Successor.” “By Anna Fifield. She joined her brother at a school in Bern, Switzerland, until about 2000, and then returned to study in North Korea.
Growing profile
Her appearance at her brother’s side at the time of her father’s death let the North Korean public know that she was part of Paektu’s bloodline. He soon had a position in the Workers’ Party Propaganda and Agitation Department, according to South Korea, where he was responsible for managing the leader’s image in the state media, a publication similar to the one his father had when he was being groomed. for the succession
She constantly rose through the ranks and became a closer confidant to her brother, accompanying him on inspection visits to factories, farms, and military units. Then his high-profile appearances on the international stage, which included mundane tasks such as helping the leader put out a cigarette during a train stop in China, helped cement his status.
Kim raises the profile of the sister with the publication of the North Korean Politburo
“When Kim Yo Jong has risen as high as she already is, she is no longer considered a woman but a leader who inherited more legitimacy to rule than others,” said Chun Yungwoo, a former South Korean envoy for international nuclear talks with Korea. from North. “North Korea is certainly one of the most masculine macho societies in the world, but the bloodline supplemented by status in the Korean Workers’ Party replaces gender.”
Kim Yo Jong’s influence was on display last month when she personally responded to a letter from Trump offering assistance in fighting Covid-19. In a statement issued by the Central Korean News Agency, he said that Trump’s “close relations” with his brother were not enough to resolve differences between long-standing enemies, allowing glimpses of how he would handle ties between the United States. and North Korea if she takes power.
‘More powerful’
“We try to wait for the day when relations between the two countries are as good as those of the two main leaders, but we have to leave it on time and see if it can really happen,” he said. “However, we will never lose or lose time for nothing, but we will continue to change to be more powerful for that moment, as we have done in the last two years.”
Kim Hong-gul, the youngest son of former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and an elected lawmaker, said Kim Yo Jong seemed to be in firm control when a Seoul delegation visited Pyongyang as part of a summit among the country’s leaders in 2018.
“I saw from a distance, at the airport on arrival and at the banquet in Pyongyang, Yo Jong meticulously taking care of everything near his brother,” said Kim Hong-gul. “It seemed like she was the primary supervisor at the site.”
On paper, there is nothing to stop a woman from taking power in North Korea, even though her rubber-stamp parliament shows that the vast majority of its members are older men, one of the least sexes in the world. The constitution says that “women are granted equal social status and rights as men.”
Still, some analysts do not believe that Kim Yo Jong can dominate the country’s generals who command the nuclear weapons program, which for many in Pyongyang represents the main guarantor of US war protection for regime change. Ra Jong-yil, a former deputy director of South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, said the country was more likely to be run by a military junta than Kim Yo Jong.
Playing the game
“It is almost unthinkable to have a female leader in North Korea” in part because of her “unique Confucian-based patriarchy,” said Lee Byong-chul, a former South Korean presidential adviser on national security issues who is now a professor. at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies in Seoul. He asked if she could control the “old male generals” without her brother’s influence, and saw that her uncle Kim Pyong Il or nominal head of state Choe Ryong Hae was more likely to take over.
Still, North Korea’s “cult-driven system” makes it essential to have a family member in charge, and Kim Jo Yong “has shown that he knows how to exercise authority,” according to Sung-Yoon Lee, who teaches Korean Studies at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in Massachusetts.
“Generals with great weapons have every interest in protecting their own power and understand that power runs through the Kim family,” he said. “She will be able to exercise power through a mixture of terror and promotions. She knows how to play the game. “
