Global deaths from Covid-19 have reached 1 million, but experts are still struggling to uncover a crucial metric in the pandemic: the death rate, the percentage of people infected with the pathogen who die.
Here’s a look at the issues related to a better understanding of the Covid-19 death rate.
How is the death rate calculated?
A true death rate would compare deaths to the total number of infections, a denominator that remains unknown because it is difficult to measure the full extent of asymptomatic cases. Many people who become infected simply do not experience symptoms.
Scientists have said that the total number of infections is exponentially higher than the current number of confirmed cases, now at 33 million globally. Many experts believe that the coronavirus likely kills 0.5% to 1% of infected people, making it a very dangerous virus globally until a vaccine is identified.
Researchers have begun to break down that risk by age group, as evidence grows that younger people and children are much less likely to have serious illness.
“The death rate for people under the age of 20 is probably one in 10,000. People over the age of 85 are about one in 6,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. from the University of Washington in Seattle.
What is a “fatality rate”?
There has been an apparent decrease in death rates when compared to the number of new infections confirmed by coronavirus tests. In places like the United States, that “fatality rate” has fallen dramatically from 6.6% in April to just over 2% in August, according to Reuters statistics.
But experts said the decline has been largely driven by more widespread testing compared to the early days of the pandemic, detecting more people who have mild illness or no symptoms. Improvements in treating critically ill patients and protecting some of the highest-risk groups are also attributed to improved survival.
“We are much more aware of possible complications and how to recognize and treat them,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security in Baltimore. “If you are a patient contracting Covid-19 in 2020, you would rather receive it now than in March.”
What does that mean for people and governments?
That highlights the need for continued surveillance, as some countries begin to experience a second wave of infections.
For example, researchers in France estimate that the country’s fatality rate fell by 46% at the end of July compared to the end of May, driven by an increase in testing, better medical care and a higher proportion of infections than They occur in younger people, who are less likely to have a serious illness.
“Now, we are seeing a further increase in hospitalizations and ICU (intensive care unit) records, which means that this discrepancy is about to end,” said Mircea Sofonea, a researcher at the University of Montpellier in France. “We will have to understand why.”
Here’s a look at the issues related to a better understanding of the Covid-19 death rate.
How is the death rate calculated?
A true death rate would compare deaths to the total number of infections, a denominator that remains unknown because it is difficult to measure the full extent of asymptomatic cases. Many people who become infected simply do not experience symptoms.
Scientists have said that the total number of infections is exponentially higher than the current number of confirmed cases, now at 33 million globally. Many experts believe that the coronavirus likely kills 0.5% to 1% of infected people, making it a very dangerous virus globally until a vaccine is identified.
Researchers have begun to break down that risk by age group, as evidence grows that younger people and children are much less likely to have serious illness.
“The death rate for people under the age of 20 is probably one in 10,000. People over the age of 85 are about one in 6,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. from the University of Washington in Seattle.
What is a “fatality rate”?
There has been an apparent decrease in death rates when compared to the number of new infections confirmed by coronavirus tests. In places like the United States, that “fatality rate” has fallen dramatically from 6.6% in April to just over 2% in August, according to Reuters statistics.
But experts said the decline has been largely driven by more widespread testing compared to the early days of the pandemic, detecting more people who have mild illness or no symptoms. Improvements in treating critically ill patients and protecting some of the highest-risk groups are also attributed to improved survival.
“We are much more aware of possible complications and how to recognize and treat them,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security in Baltimore. “If you are a patient contracting Covid-19 in 2020, you would rather receive it now than in March.”
What does that mean for people and governments?
That highlights the need for continued surveillance, as some countries begin to experience a second wave of infections.
For example, researchers in France estimate that the country’s fatality rate fell by 46% at the end of July compared to the end of May, driven by an increase in testing, better medical care and a higher proportion of infections than They occur in younger people, who are less likely to have a serious illness.
“Now, we are seeing a further increase in hospitalizations and ICU (intensive care unit) records, which means that this discrepancy is about to end,” said Mircea Sofonea, a researcher at the University of Montpellier in France. “We will have to understand why.”
.
