All the political analysts in Pakistan and their outside observers for a long time have been speaking about the recent events in the country in very sinister terms. Pakistan is at a crossroads right now.
For everyone who matters in the country: its people, its acting prime minister, the opposition and the head of the army, the stakes are really higher. And more are likely to accumulate with each passing day.
In this article, News18 details the highlights of the events that have unfolded in Pakistan so far and the reasons why they are important.
What has happened so far?
The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), a united group of 11 Pakistani opposition parties founded last month, has staged two massive demonstrations, including the two major parties: the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), the Pakistan People’s Party and others like Jamiat Ulema. e-Islam (Fazlur), the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party, the National Baloch Party and the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement.
To avoid a confrontation between the opposition parties on the issue of leadership, Maulana Fazlur Rahman, considered a hardline Islamist leader with a large following and wide public acceptance, has been appointed head of this umbrella body.
The first of the demonstrations was held on October 16 in Gujranwala and the second on October 18 in Karachi. A third demonstration is planned in Quetta on October 25.
The demonstrations are significant, given the fact that Nawaz Sharif, whom many consider to be running the show from London, through his video address to the people, named the serving army chiefs, General Qamar Javed Bajwa and ISI General Faiz Hameed Chaudhry. , along with previous army commanders, and accused them of overthrowing his government and installing the puppet Imran Khan regime in 2018.
One day after the Karachi rally, Captain (retired) Muhammad Safdar, Sharif’s son-in-law, three-time prime minister, was dramatically arrested, with his wife Maryam Nawaz Sharif tweeting about the police breaking into his hotel. room at midnight and arresting Safdar.
Hours after the arrest, some prominent Pakistani journalists, including Hamid Mir, claimed that the Pakistani Rangers, their paramilitary border guard force, had “kidnapped” the local police inspector general to “force” him to sign Safdar’s arrest warrant in 4 a.m., after the IG refused to arrest him. Safdar was later released on bail.
What is significant about these counts?
Generally speaking, there are four reasons why many commentators inside and outside Pakistan are watching the PDM movements with great interest.
Punjab politics
Punjab province in Pakistan has been the mainstay of both: the country’s politics and military. The more prosperous region has not only given a disproportionately large number of leaders to the country, but it is also the territory of Sharif and the man whose authority he has directly challenged, General Qamar Bajwa. The Gujranwala rally that Sharif addressed from London via video link is said to be no more than 10 miles from Ghakar Mandi, the army chief’s hometown. The end result of this frontal struggle will surely have a great consequence on the power politics in the neighborhood of India.
The opposition’s struggle for democracy
Many observers also see the opposition grouping, which initially focused on overthrowing Imran Khan, and whose scope Sharif broadened by attacking senior army commanders, aims to ensure the restriction of the Pakistani military’s interference in affairs. politicians in your country. Institutions such as the National Accountability Office (NAB), which were apparently created to act against endemic corruption in the country, and which are controlled directly by the country’s army chief, have forced the opposition to unite and criticize the abuse of power through which the Army has been affecting arbitrary arrests and repression against the country’s opposition, lawyers, and judges.
Survival of Imran Khan
The Prime Minister of Pakistan has proven to be a failure in almost everything from the economy to international affairs. By openly allying himself with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the President of Turkey, who is in a confrontation with Sunni Muslim countries (such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) that have been Pakistan’s closest allies and money bags, it is argued that Khan has caused great damage to the political and economic future of his country.
In a recent speech, Khan warned that the country would see a “new Imran Khan,” meaning that arrests and persecution of the country’s opposition leaders would intensify. Khan knows that if things get tough, the Pakistani military won’t waste time replacing him with someone else. For him, this is a life and death battle.
Pakistan’s economic collapse
In a recent column in his Friday Times newspaper, journalist and former Punjab chief minister and PCB chairman Najam Sethi expressed concern that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will not give a single penny to Pakistan this year. , due to its conditions for a third section. of the three-year $ 6 billion structural adjustment program remains unfulfilled.
One of the reasons for the huge public participation in the PDM demonstrations, he argued, is rising unemployment and the collapse of the economy.
“In January 2021, if the government has not significantly increased gas, gasoline and electricity prices, if it has not significantly increased tax collection, if it has failed to significantly reduce the circular debt, it can simply leave Pakistan. , as it has done on all but one occasion in the last twenty years. But if the IMF withdraws, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and other international financial institutions will follow suit … putting pressure on its foreign exchange market (Pakistan) which is depleting reserves and effectively devaluing the rupee further. With a forecast for GDP growth below 1%, unemployment will exceed 30 million, joining inflation to besiege the government like never before, “he wrote .
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