After the euphoria now the apprehension. With farmers’ protests showing no immediate signs of ending and protesters have hot on their heels, many political parties are looking to profit from the move.
One thing the farmers have made clear is that while politicians may try to milk protests, they should stay away from the actual protest sites. And this is what worries many political parties, especially the stakeholders in Punjab.
Cut to the Anna Hazare movement, which started in New Delhi in 2011 with a hunger strike demanding the Jan Lokpal bill to combat corruption. The government in power and the ruling Congress were in a bind. The movement captured the minds of the people, especially the middle class, and many young people joined. The more Congress struggled to confront it, the more powerful the movement began. And here, too, politicians from the main parties were largely kept away.
While Congress, being in power, tried to negotiate, others like the BJP could only watch from afar but with smiles on their faces. The annihilation of Congress and the UPA in the 2014 parliamentary elections was due in large part to the Anna movement and the narrative it built that the UPA was corrupt and anti-popular.
The similarity with the current peasant movement, however, ends here. First of all, it is largely confined to northern India and also Punjab and Haryana. The Anna movement, although based in Delhi, had captured space in many other parts of the country. Similar movements occurred in many southern and western regions. So far, apart from a few small groups, not many support farmers. But since the protests are close to Delhi, it has captured the minds of the media and also the Center.
The other important factor is that so far the middle class has not been attracted to the peasant movement and protests. A senior MP from Punjab says: “It is still early days, but so far the middle class has not been involved in this. The day they do, politicians would have reason to be even more concerned.”
But when it comes to politicians, especially Captain Amarinder Singh, they have reason to be concerned. The Akalis still have to grapple with the perception of being part of the NDA cabinet when the farm laws were passed. His departure from the government is considered to have been a bit late. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), many of whose leaders like Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia were part of Anna Hazare’s Indian Anti-Corruption movement, may be waiting to see what turn the protests take. If the movement presents alternative leadership, then the party’s dream of capturing Punjab and Haryana may become more distant. And the AAP knows very well what an initially apolitical movement without political support can lead to.
Now for the Chief Minister of Punjab, Captain Amarinder Singh. Their concerns go beyond movement. You have tried to take a middle way. While attacking Haryana’s Chief Minister ML Khattar for not doing enough for the farmers, Captain has been in the forefront to fight for the farmers. But the fact is that Punjab is a border state and there are concerns that if things get out of hand, it could spell serious security problems for the vulnerable region.
However, the CM is aware that, as of now, the Akalis and the AAP, to some extent, do not have a solid foundation on this issue. And this is fertile ground for the emergence of a new leader or movement as in 2011. That is why the Captain is also inciting some farmers’ unions to speak to the central government to break the ice.
The concern is that the longer the stagnation continues, the more likely it is that a new alternative will emerge. And this is something that none of the political parties wants. So the longer the protests become, the chances of the middle class becoming entangled and spreading to other states as well become significant. Not many Punjab politicians would want that to materialize.
Another concern is a déjà vu moment for Congress from 2005, when the ‘kisaan-paani’ issue had hit the party. The current protests are largely by Jat Sikhs and people from rural Punjab. With Hindus and urban areas still staying away from farmers protests, Congress and the Captain are concerned about the polarization that could work for the BJP with urban and Hindu votes going to the saffron party in the elections of the assembly of 2022.
So for now, the protests are being watched nervously by the Punjab government and politicians.
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