Why Europe, not just the United States, is Covid’s big concern

Covid has spread across the United States at a terrifying rate in recent weeks, making it the first country to record more than 1 lakh of cases a day and surpass the 1 crore mark for cases. This “third wave” of the disease lives up to the dire predictions epidemiologists had made months ago. However, things are worse on the other side of the Atlantic.

Of the top 3 countries affected by Covid (US, India and Brazil), only the US has shown double digit growth over the last month. India, which was expected to be the first past the 1 lakh mark of daily cases, now averages less than half of its maximum daily cases recorded in September. And Brazil has lagged far behind both.

Second wave of Europe

It is in Europe that the pandemic has really broken out after a period of relative calm. Seven of the top 10 countries are now from Europe. France has roughly as many cases as India in November, while Italy, the UK and Poland have more cases than Brazil.

Winter worry

Epidemiologists had warned of a second wave in winter when people spend more time together indoors. The data suggest that the second wave of infections arrived in Europe just before the onset of winter.

Western crisis

Together, the United States and the worst affected European countries are adding more than 3 lakh of cases a day. The increase in cases has forced many cities and even entire countries to consider re-enforcing the blockade.

India’s concerns remain

While the overall figures from India have been reassuring for more than a month, 11 states have reported more than 20,000 cases each in November. Delhi alone reported about a lakh of cases in the first fortnight. Kerala is not far behind, while Maharashtra ranks third with close to 70,000 cases.

Double digit growth

More than absolute numbers, the rate of increase is cause for concern. Six of these 11 states with more than 20,000 cases have grown between 12 and 25% in one month. Delhi appears to be in its third wave of infections. Neighbors Haryana and Rajasthan are also going through their second wave. Things could start to improve in West Bengal, Kerala and Chhattisgarh, where cases appear to have peaked.

Delhi is the most affected
All the districts of Delhi together contributed a few lakhs of cases in November. NCR’s neighboring districts also experienced double-digit growth. Bengaluru Urban had more than 20,000 cases. Some districts of West Bengal and Kerala are also among the worst affected.

Data as of November 15

Source: ECDC, Popper.ai, covid19india.org