Updated: September 8, 2020 7:47:10 am
Collection of samples for Covid-19 testing in Pune. (Express Photo: Arul Horizon / Archive)
On Monday, the number of confirmed cases of infection with the new coronavirus in Pune reached the two lakh mark. The infection count in Pune (2.03 lakh) is not just more than any other city, including Delhi (1.93 lakh) or Mumbai (1.57 lakh), but it is even more than all but the five states with the highest number of cases.
What explains Pune’s high Covid-19 count?
Pune has a substantially smaller population than Delhi or Mumbai, the two cities with the second and third highest numbers of confirmed cases, and it is also less densely populated. Both Mumbai and Delhi have higher numbers of migrants, a much higher number of arriving international travelers, and much more economic activity.(Follow LIVE UPDATES from Covid-19 here)
The emergence of Pune as the city with the highest number of cases is somewhat intriguing, although not entirely a surprise since it was always among the five most affected cities.
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One of the reasons Pune’s high count is often cited is that the city has been running a lot more tests. While it is true that Pune is currently running more tests than any other city in Maharashtra, including Mumbai, the number of tests in Delhi is even higher.
Scientists, health officials and officials have pointed to several other things that could have contributed to Pune’s rise as the worst-hit city.
Police checkpoint and barricades on the Jangli Maharaj road in Pune. (Express photo)
GREATER DISSEMINATION: A recent serosurvey in Pune revealed that in some of the surveyed areas, more than 50% to 60% of the population had already been infected, although most of them had not been detected. Similar surveys in other cities – Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Ahmedabad – have shown much less spread of disease. Delhi, for example, has been found to have a disease prevalence of around 29% and Mumbai 40% in some areas.
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This could mean that Pune has a much higher proportion of its population already infected. As tests increase, more and more of these are detected. And that could be because Pune was one of the first cities to report a coronavirus infection.
LESS EFFECTIVE INSULATION MEASURES: Pune had reported the first infection in Maharashtra on March 9. Most of the first cases in the state were concentrated in Mumbai and Pune. While Mumbai was ahead by one stage as it received a large number of international travelers, Pune was also adding numbers at a rapid pace. But, experts now point out, contact tracing and isolation did not occur as effectively in Pune as in Mumbai.
Dr Subhash Salunke, Chairman of the State Technical Committee on Communicable Disease Prevention, said that while Pune, like Mumbai and Delhi, has a large influx of people from other areas, what is unique about Pune is its close ties to local communities. rural areas. “There are people who make two or three trips to the city every day from nearby rural areas. Contact tracing becomes a bit of a difficult exercise in such an environment, especially when these areas are under the control of multiple civic authorities, ”he said.
Mumbai, for example, had prepared several large makeshift hospitals, equipped with oxygen beds and ventilators, for May and June. That not only helped deal with the hospital bed shortage, but also provided specialized care and served as isolation centers. Pune got its first such installation in late August, and that too is fraught with problems.
Mahesh Zagade, a former Pune municipal commissioner who is remembered for his role in containing the H1N1 outbreak in Pune, said the city administration reacted to the current epidemic. “Certainly there has been a certain amount of administrative mismanagement. Covid-19 requires a preventive strategy. But the administration in Pune was handling it as a curative disease, which it is not. Pune was always fighting fires and not thinking ahead, ”said Zagade.
PMC medical staff conduct health checks at the Pune camp. (Express photo / Ashish Kale / Archive)
HIGHEST TESTS: On average, testing in Pune lately has been between 13,500 and 14,500 samples per day, the highest in the state. And most of these are RT-PCR tests, which are more reliable than the rapid antigen tests that make up most of the tests elsewhere, including Delhi.
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“The extended testing has certainly increased our numbers. But that shouldn’t be a cause for concern because it leads to early identification and isolation of infected people, and that helps in the long run. It also helps keep mortality under control, ”said a civic official.
Some scientists also point out that Pune has been following a more transparent process when reporting its numbers. Dibyendu Nandi, a professor at IISER Kolkata who has been working with the authorities in Pune on data analysis, said the city had much “cleaner” data than many other cities. “So what you see in Pune is a very good reflection of the current situation. That is not true in many other cities. The numbers you see are not a good representation of what could be happening, ”he said.
IT IS NOT DISTANCE ENOUGH: Some also point to the fact that confinement restrictions were not effectively enforced in Pune and there has been poor enforcement of physical distancing rules. This is also evident from the fact that Pune has had the highest number of people in Maharashtra who have been fined for not wearing masks or for violating confinement restrictions.
“If the authorities had strictly enforced the lockdown for 14 days, then the spread of the infection could have been controlled. The current situation indicates that the application of the law was not up to par, ”said Zagade.
A decision was made on a fine of Rs 500 for those who do not wear a mask or spit in public. However, there was not much implementation. The fine has now been increased to 1,000 rupees, with the police empowered to penalize citizens who do not wear a mask.
What is the way ahead?
Scientists like LS Shashidhara, a professor at IISER Pune and Ashoka University in Haryana, said the situation in Pune is likely to start to improve. “The daily growth rate of cases has been decreasing. And there are already signs that by the end of this month we will begin to see a decrease in reported cases, “he said.
Meanwhile, Delhi is undergoing another turnaround. New daily detections from Delhi have started to rise steadily and are now almost on par with what Pune has been reporting. If it continues to rise in the same way, there is a chance that Pune will lose its not-so-glorious number one position.
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