With the protests entering their third week, AFP looks at the background to the new farm laws, why they are sparking such opposition, and Modi’s limited options.
– What is the state of Indian agriculture? –
India’s agricultural sector is vast and contentious.
It provides a livelihood for nearly 70 percent of the country’s 1.3 billion people and represents about 15 percent of the $ 2.7 trillion economy.
The “Green Revolution” of the 1970s turned India from a country facing regular food shortages to one with a surplus and a major exporter.
But for the past few decades, farm incomes have largely remained stagnant and the sector is in dire need of investment and modernization.
More than 85 percent of farmers have less than two hectares (five acres) of land. Fewer than one in 100 farmers own more than 10 hectares, according to a 2015-16 Ministry of Agriculture survey.
India distributes an estimated $ 32 billion in subsidies to farmers annually, according to the Ministry of Finance.
– How do farmers manage? –
Water shortages, floods and increasingly erratic weather caused by climate change, as well as debt, have taken a heavy toll on farmers.
According to a report from the Punjab government in 2017, the northern state will consume all of its groundwater resources by 2039.
More than 300,000 farmers have committed suicide since the 1990s. Almost 10,300 did so in 2019, according to the latest official figures.
Farmers and their workers are also abandoning agriculture en masse, 2,000 of them every day according to the latest 2011 census.
– What did Modi promise? –
Indian governments have long made big promises to farmers, a crucial vote bank, and Modi is no exception, vowing to double his income by 2022.
In September, parliament passed three laws that allowed farmers to sell to any buyer they chose, rather than to brokers in state-controlled markets.
These markets were established in the 1950s to stop the exploitation of farmers and pay a minimum support price (MSP) for certain products.
The system has sometimes led farmers to grow crops that are not adapted to the local climate, such as thirsty rice in Punjab, and it can be fertile ground for corruption.
But many farmers see the MSP as a vital safety net and fear that they will not be able to compete with large farms and that large corporations will pay them low prices.
“The laws will harm farmers and, in turn, destroy our livelihoods,” said Sukhwinder Singh, a farm worker who cycled 400 kilometers (250 miles) until the protests.
“The land, livestock and farmers will be enslaved by the rich. This government wants to finish us off,” he said.
– What can Modi do? –
Modi has come under fire before, a disastrous recall of large bills in 2016, for example, but his popularity has remained, winning a crushing re-election in 2019.
Since late 2019, there have been months of protests against a citizenship law imposed by the Hindu nationalist BJP government of Modi that was deemed discriminatory to Muslims.
But the BJP, with its influence on social and traditional media, was able to present the protesters as “anti-national” before Covid-19 finally shut down the protests.
Modi, 70, has tried to ignore the current turmoil as fueled by opportunistic opposition that “misleads” farmers.
Some members of his party have upped the ante by calling the protesters, many of whom are Sikhs, as “hooligans, Sikh separatists and anti-nationals.”
But with farmers it is different.
They enjoy widespread support among the Indians and their ignorance clashes with Modi’s image as a champion of the poor.
In rural areas, where 70 percent of Indians live, there is already a growing perception that Modi is comfortable with big business and billionaire industrialists like Mukesh Ambani, the richest person in Asia.
“There are many things that are outdated in the agricultural sector. But reforms cannot be promoted like this,” Arati Jerath, a political analyst, told AFP.
“This is the biggest challenge for the government so far … It will have to find a way to back off and save face at the same time.”
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