The next president of the United States will lead a weak administration and a divided country. Whether it’s a second round from Donald Trump or a presidency from Joe Biden, the next four years will be Washington running well below average.
None of them will run again in 2024. Trump is prohibited from doing so by the US constitution. Biden, who ran only to dethrone Trump, plans to be president for a term. They would compete to be the oldest president in American history: Trump is 74 years old, Biden 77.
The next four years will see Republicans and Democrats preparing for midterm legislative elections for much of 2022 to control the Senate. By 2023, the lame duck period will begin and the next presidential election campaign will begin. Whether vice president or not, both Kamala Harris and Mike Pence will be in the fray, as will other heavyweights, including American Indian Nikki Haley and Trump’s Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. There will be a lot of electoral posture, not a lot of politics.
The legislature will be divided. Following current forecasts, Republicans will narrowly hold on to the Senate and prove a thorn in the side of President Biden. Democrats will continue to harass Trump through the House of Representatives. Congress and the White House under different parties is normal in America. But the degree of rancor and the lack of bipartisanship is not. Studies show that the number of bills that attract votes from members of both parties has dropped dramatically. The Manifesto Project and other studies show that both parties have been ideologically estranged since 2008. Biden, for example, is being savagely attacked by the progressive wing of his party because of his desire to have a Republican in his cabinet.
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During his campaign, President Trump never presented a political agenda for his second term, he simply said, “I think it would be similar.” His main interest appears to be purging officials who failed to indulge his most paranoid beliefs, including the idea that Barack Obama’s staff undermined his 2016 presidential campaign.
His defense secretary, Mike Esper, will be among the potential victims, as will his top Covid-19 adviser, the much-admired Dr. Anthony Fauci. Professionals are already reluctant to work under Trump’s capricious and sometimes legally questionable style of government. This will only get worse in a second period, making long-term politics a tough business. There is a reason the “second term curse” is part of America’s political lexicon.
Biden will have no personnel problems. His problems will be in dealing with a Republican Senate and the left wing of his party, which encompasses nearly 100 Democratic lawmakers. The Progressive Caucus sheathed its swords to help defeat Trump, but its demands that Elizabeth Warren become Biden’s Treasury Secretary are the initial salvo in a broader ideological struggle. “Biden would be the weakest first-term president in recent memory,” says Akhil Bery, an analyst at Eurasia Group.
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