1. Florida, Florida, Florida! The polls have closed in Florida, a pivotal pivotal state is poised for the early counting of all votes (unlike many other states). If Biden is the projected winner there, he is 80 percent on his way to the White House. This is because you already have 217 electoral votes locked in Democratic strongholds and blue-leaning states (assuming you don’t lose any), and Florida’s 29 electoral votes put you within a striking distance of 270.
2. Georgia and North CarolinaTrump comfortably won both states in 2016, and polls show Biden is competitive in both states, which is why Trump has had to campaign so hard to keep them in his column. But if black voters in these two states, buoyed by the Black Lives Matter movement, turn strong (early voting suggests they could have) and if Trump hasn’t expanded his base with an in-person turnout on Tuesday, the Biden will have a good opportunity. So if you win Georgia (16 electoral votes) and North Carolina (15) in addition to Florida (29), and retain the other Democratic states that Hillary Clinton won, then the 60 electoral votes would put you beyond 270 and you will be finished. the game. for Trump. The messy count in the rust belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin) wouldn’t matter.
But Trump retains Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he would still have to win the rust belt states to cross 270 and win a second term. Most polls show Biden leading the way in the rust belt states too, ready to reclaim the so-called Democratic blue wall that collapsed before Trump in 2016. This is why Trump and his campaign are so eager to stop. mail ballot counting in these states (which tend to favor Democrats) and claim to win based on in-person votes (which are counted early and tend to favor Republicans).
But to do that, Trump will first have to win Florida. Trump’s future will rise or set in the sunshine state.
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