Much has been said about the role caste plays, or not, in Bihar’s electoral politics. Among those who claim that Bihar politics is determined entirely by caste and those who argue that the alignments of caste and party have now become fluid and thus have made caste irrelevant to other factors, there is necessarily a great space in which the truth resides. Data collected before and during the campaign by researchers at the Trivedi Center for Political Data (TCPD) shows that, while certain dominant groups remain over-represented over time, traditional caste and party alignments have changed significantly.
BJP-Congress are mainly upper caste parties, RJD and JD (U) prefer Yadavs and Kurmis
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress are mainly upper caste parties when it comes to distributing tickets. Our data shows that 47.3% of the BJP candidates were upper castes, predominantly Rajput. The Banias, who are considered as other backward classes (OBC) in Bihar, also find substantial representation compared to their demographic weight. The rest of the tickets distributed to OBC candidates are divided in half between Yadav’s and non-Yadav’s OBCs. The fact that the BJP does not give tickets to Muslims allows it to maintain social balance among Hindus.
Congress distributed 40% of its 70 tickets to upper caste candidates and 17% to Muslim candidates, again in the subregions.
The JD (U) continued to favor Kurmis among the CBOs, but gave equal representation to Yadav’s candidates. The remaining 25% of the entries awarded to non-Yadav and non-Kurmi candidates were divided among at least twelve other groups, each of which received a handful.
The RJD stayed true to its base by distributing nearly a third of its tickets to Yadav’s candidates. The remaining 70% were distributed among a wide variety of castes, chosen according to local demographics and local patterns of domination. 12.5% of its entries were given to Muslim candidates, in most sub-regions.
See Table 1: RJD-BJP-JD (U) and Congress Breakdown by Candidate Caste and MLA
Bihar has 52% MLA for the first time, but this did not affect the caste profile much.
Our analysis shows that even though half of the assembly’s constituencies changed hands this time and most of the MLAs are new, the assembly’s caste profile has not radically changed. To be sure, there is an increase in the proportion of upper caste MLA (23.9% to 29.2%) and a fall in the proportion of OBC (48.6% to 40.7%) compared to 2015. The Increasing the upper caste ratio is largely a function of improving BJP performance.
See Figure 2: Long-term trend of the social composition of the Bihar assembly
The Yadavs have lost share, but remain the largest group among the OBCs
Not only has the RJD succeeded in getting the majority of its Yadav candidates elected (26 out of 44), but also 16 other Yadav candidates affiliated with six different parties were elected. While their overall representation in the Assembly has declined (in the 2015 elections, one in four MLA was a Yadav), they still almost constitute the majority of the OBC’s representation in the House. The simple fact that Yadav’s candidates find substantial representation in two major parties (as demonstrated above) in addition to the RJD ensures that their presence, and indeed their dominance in the Assembly and local politics, remains unchallenged.
See Figure 3: Long-term composition of OBC MLAs in subcastes in Bihar
Among the upper castes, the Rajputs are the largest bloc in the assembly and its total participation; the highest ever, at 52%, is higher than that of three other major upper caste groups: Brahmins, Bhumihars, and Kayasthas.
See Figure 4: Long-term composition of upper caste MLA in Bihar
Even if some old caste and party alignments persist, there is more fluidity in inter-caste competition in Bihar than it seems. But the stability of patterns of representation comes from the fact that caste-based representation of dominant groups is not completely determined by the performance of the parties that are supposed or expected to represent them. Regardless of which party wins or loses, they find their way to the assembly.
This has far-reaching implications for those who remain excluded from such politics. The inclusive strategy that most parties claim to follow in Bihar does not ultimately translate into substantial political empowerment of non-dominant groups, who remain fragmented and divided. This is how inclusion obfuscates the resilience of the domain in local politics.
(Gilles Verniers is Associate Professor of Political Science at Ashoka University, Co-Director of the Trivedi Center for Political Data, and Visiting Principal Investigator for the Center for Policy Research. Basim U Nissa, who collected the data, is a Research Associate at TCPD. pandemic, data was collected remotely and verified by cross-checking from various sources. Errors cannot be completely ruled out. Mohit Kumar and Neelesh Agrawal also contributed to the data).
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