Defense, strategic and security relations will likely follow a path that has remained largely the same since 2000, but there is a split in Biden’s camp over his approach to China, which could have implications for India.
India and the United States will have trade problems regardless of who sits in the White House. H-1B visas are unlikely to ever go back to the way they used to be. However, a Biden administration could also raise human rights violations in India, accusations of majority rule and Kashmir, which could gain traction in a Congress with a strong number of Democrats.
This is what it means:
Biden and Kamala Harris
Biden is coming with Kamala Harris, who, as vice president, can play an important role in policy making. Since she has indicated that she may only be a president for one term, Harris is a perfect candidate for 2024. See how she influences issues.
Common global challenges
Biden reached out to Indian Americans in his campaign and has a benign view of India. The relationship between the United States and India will have become institutionalized and will be difficult to undo. Anthony Blinken, one of Biden’s top strategists, has said: “We cannot solve common global challenges without India being part of the deal … Strengthening and deepening the relationship with India will be a very high priority.”
Defense and security
Defense, strategic and security relationships between the Biden administration and India will largely continue on the path they have followed since 2000.
Relations with China
The Biden team is divided in its approach to China. This would have implications for US-India and India-China relations. Some of his advisers have taken a tough Trump-style view of China. Others say that it is impossible to untangle the economies of the United States and China, so there may be a decoupling in the areas of national security and critical technology, but no more.
Indo-Pacific Strategy
Biden’s campaign has not made its Indo-Pacific strategy clear. Since the region is the central focus of Indian foreign policy, this space should be watched.
Business problems
India and the United States will have trade problems, no matter who is in power. Also during the Obama administration, trade friction between New Delhi and Washington was rampant. A Biden administration will not forgive trade. Also, Biden has his own version of Make America Great Again. Bill Burns, one of Biden’s top advisers, has said: “First, American foreign policy must support the national revival.”
Human rights violations
A Biden administration may take note of human rights violations in India, accusations of Hindu majorityism, Jammu and Kashmir and repression in that country. This could pick up steam in a Congress with a large number of Democrats, particularly among progressives.
Counterterrorism in Afghanistan
It was Biden who proposed that the United States maintain only one counterterrorism presence in Afghanistan. Therefore, Trump’s troop withdrawal is unlikely to be reversed.
Paris Agreement
Without question, Biden will lead the United States back to the Paris Climate Agreement. But India can expect to be criticized by him over the use of coal.
H-1B visas
H-1B visas are unlikely to return as they used to be. While this could affect Indian technologists, the pandemic has fueled remote work.
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