Cyclone Burevi is located over the southwest of the Bay of Bengal, about 200 km east of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka); and 420 km east-southeast of Pamban (India); and 600 km almost east-northeast of Kanniyakumari (India) at 8.30 am on Wednesday morning. An update from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) at 11.30am sent an “orange” message to southern Tamil Nadu and southern Kerala.
An ‘orange’ message implies advice to be prepared in light of an increased likelihood of extremely bad weather, which could cause travel delays, road and rail closures and power outages. People must be prepared to change plans and protect themselves from the impact of severe weather as forecast. There could be a risk to life and property.
Will still be a cyclone all the way
Burevi is expected to intensify further overnight, but not from calm to severe cyclone. Instead, it will move from west to northwest to cross the Sri Lankan coast north to Trincomalee (further north than previously expected) on Wednesday for what is its first landing, as a cyclone with wind speeds of 80- 90 km. / h with gusts of 100 km / h. The severe cyclone state is reached when the winds reach a threshold of 89-117 km / h.
After the first landfall, the cyclone will continue to move down the same track, emerging into the Gulf of Mannar and the contiguous area of Comorin on Thursday. Hit by winds accelerating to 70-80 km / r with gusts of 90 km / h (cyclone status is maintained), it will change its course very close to Pamban (southeast of Tamil Nadu) around the same noon, said IMD .
Change to a track further south
From here, Burevi will turn his track to the west-southwest and slow down on the track, even while staying very close to shore and crossing the southeast coast of Tamil Nadu between Kanniyakumari and Pamban overnight on Thursday or Friday by early morning. – like a cyclone with wind speeds of 70 to 80 km / h with gusts of 90 km / h.
It will remain a cyclone for the third day, and its impact on the southern coastal districts of Tamil Nadu may start from Thursday morning initially over the Ramanathapuram district and gradually towards the Kanniyakumari district.
A storm surge of up to 3.2 feet is noted
IMD warned of a storm surge up to 3.2 feet above astronomical level that could flood low-lying areas of the Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli and Kanniyakumari districts in Tamil Nadu during the time of landfall. On the other hand, it has advised the total suspension of fishing operations from December 2 to 5 in neighboring maritime areas.
The Kanniyakumari, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi and Ramanathapuram districts in southern Tamil Nadu and the Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta and Alappuzah districts in southern Kerala should be alert to the risk of damage to thatched roof huts and lines electrical and communication. Damage to rice crops, banana and papaya trees and orchards is possible. Seawater could seep into low-lying areas once the kutcha embankments give way.
Sri Lanka Agency Forecast
Sri Lanka’s Meteorological Department said that Burevi would cross the island’s east coast between Batticaloa and Point-Pedro, near Trincomalee around Wednesday afternoon / night with wind speeds of 75-85 km / hr with gusts of up to 95 km / h and then emerge in the Gulf of Mannar.
Intermittent showers / thunderstorms will occur in the eastern, northern, north-central, northwest, central and Sabaragamuwa provinces. In some places you can expect very heavy rains above 20 cm. Occasionally, there will be showers or showers elsewhere. Heavy rains above 10 cm can be expected in some other places. Very strong gusty winds (80-90 km / h) can be expected in these provinces.
Forecast of heavy rains
Meanwhile, the IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rains with isolated and extremely heavy falls over the Kanniyakumari, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, Tenkasi, Ramanathapuram and Sivagangai districts in southern Tamil Nadu on Wednesday and Thursday; and over the districts of Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta and Alappuzha in southern Kerala on Thursday. Heavy to very heavy would be isolated over southern Tamil Nadu on Wednesday and Friday, and over southern Kerala on Thursday and Friday.
Heavy to very heavy rains are forecast in isolated locations over northern Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Mahe, Karaikal and northern Kerala on Wednesday and Thursday; and isolated heavy on Friday. Heavy rains have also been forecast for the southern coast of Andhra Pradesh on Wednesday and Thursday, and over Lakshadweep on Thursday and Friday.
Strong winds seen around Lanka, TN
Prevailing hurricane-force winds with speeds reaching 75-85 km / h with gusts of 95 km / h over the southwest of the Bay of Bengal and along and off the coast of Sri Lanka can increase to 80-90 km / h with gusts of 100 km / h starting this afternoon (Wednesday) and staying as such until midnight before gradually diminishing.
Gusty winds with speeds of 45 to 55 km / h with gusts of 65 km / h are likely over the Comorin area, the Gulf of Mannar and along and in front of the Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli and Kanniyakumari districts in southern Tamil Nadu and Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam. Pathanamthitta and Alappuzha districts in South Kerala.
Wind speeds will increase from 55 to 65 km / h with gusts of 75 km / h from Wednesday night to 70-80 km / h with gusts of 90 km / h from Thursday morning and will remain that way until Friday morning. Winds reaching 45-55 km / h and gusts of 65 km / h are likely over the Lakshadweep-Maldives area and along the southeastern Arabian Sea starting Thursday for the next two days.
Adverse sea conditions
Wind speed will increase from 55 to 65 km / h with gusts at 75 km / h starting tonight and from 70 to 80 km / h with gusts at 90 km / h from Thursday night to Friday morning and then it will decrease. Wind speeds can reach 45-55km / h with gusts of 65km / h over the Lakshadweep-Maldives and the adjacent southeast Arabian Sea starting Thursday morning for the next two days.
Sea state is “very strong to high” (20 to 30 foot wave heights) over the southwest and southeast of the bay until later this morning (Wednesday) and will gradually improve thereafter. It is ‘very rough to high’ also over the southwest bay and along and off the east coast of Sri Lanka, which would continue until the same night.
Sea conditions would be ‘rough to very rough’ (8-20 feet) over the Comorin area, the Gulf of Mannar and along and off the southern coast of Tamil Nadu-Kerala and western Sri Lanka on Wednesday and ‘very hectic to high’ on both Thursday and Friday. These days, it would be “rough to very rough” in Lakshadweep-Maldives and along the southeastern Arabian Sea. The total suspension of fishing operations in these sections has been noted during these days.
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