A zone of low pressure has formed over the southern Andaman Sea, adjacent to the southeastern areas of the Bay of Bengal and the equatorial Indian Ocean, almost the same region where the very severe cyclone ‘Nivar’ had occurred the week passed and happened to cross the Coast of Puducherry and neighborhood a few days ago.
In what is revealed to be latent explosive activity around the South Sumatra-Andaman Sea region, the prevailing ‘low’ is also expected to focus on a depression by Monday afternoon, and may intensify further, possibly in a cyclone, if wind speed projections are given. conducted by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is one indication.
Prospects for rebuilding like a storm
This system is expected to move west-northwest and reach the extreme coasts of northern Sri Lanka and southern Tamil Nadu, involving consecutive landfalls (Sri Lanka and southern Tamil Nadu) by Wednesday, which it would decide the force with which it could come. hit the south coast of Tamil Nadu.
A landfall could slow it down and weaken it, but it can rebuild itself like a storm if it is allowed to cross the warm ocean waters again for some time.
This window may be too short in the present case as the Strait of Pak / Gulf of Mannar separating the South Coast from Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka is a very narrow corridor. The path of the storm resembles that of Cyclone Ockhi of 2017, very severe, except that it had traveled more open water south of Sri Lanka before curving back towards Lakshadweep and near the Kerala-Karnataka shores.
Projected landfall area
But the cyclone that is brewing three years from now could still retain its original intensity if the first landing took place in the extreme northern parts of Sri Lanka, and hit the coast of Tamil Nadu south of Puducherry, where the very severe cyclone predecessor. ‘Nivar’ had made landfall.
Meanwhile, the IMD said a remnant of the depression / possible cyclone may emerge in the southeastern Arabian Sea after crossing the southern tip of the peninsula (southern tip of Tamil Nadu and Kerala) on Thursday, before moving west. -Northwest and off the coast of Kerala and re-intensifying again.
Heavy rain, bad weather
Forecast for today (Sunday) predicted heavy rains on the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and thunderstorms with lightning over Kerala and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Rainy weather with wind speeds reaching 45-55 km / h, with gusts of 65 km / h (almost the force of the depression) may prevail over the southeast and southwest of the Bay of Bengal and the southern sea from Andaman.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.
Monday: Lightning thunderstorms may erupt over Kerala and Lakshadweep. Rough weather is likely with wind speeds reaching 45-55 km / h with gusts of up to 60 km / h in the southwest and southeast of the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Mannar.
Anglers are advised not to venture into these areas.
Tuesday: The depression is expected to intensify twice to become a cyclone with heavy to very heavy rains hitting southern Tamil Nadu and southern Kerala and heavy rains over the coast of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and northern Kerala
Lightning thunderstorms are possible over the coast of Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, inland southern Karnataka, Lakshadweep, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
Irregular weather with wind speeds reaching 65-75 km / h, with gusts of 85 km / h (cyclonic force) may prevail over the southwest of the Bay of Bengal and along and off the coast of southern Tamil Nadu and 65-75 km / h with gusts at 85 km / h along and off the coasts of northern Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala, the Comorin area and the Gulf of Mannar.
Anglers are advised not to venture into these areas.
The rains will increase for Wednesday
The projected cyclone would bring widespread rains over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Lakshadweep, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Rayalaseema on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rains with moderate thunderstorms and lightning are forecast in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry these days, while they would be extremely heavy in southern Tamil Nadu and southern Kerala on Wednesday.
Isolated strong declines with moderate thunderstorms and lightning are also forecast off the southern coast of Andhra Pradesh on Tuesday and Wednesday and over Rayalaseema, the southern interior of Karnataka and the Lakshadweep area on Wednesday.
An extended outlook from December 4-6 (Friday next to Sunday) highlights the possibility of light to moderate rains in most parts of the South Peninsula and the Andaman & Nicobar and Lakshadweep Islands (the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea on both sides of the peninsula). Isolated strong falls are possible on these islands.
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