Virus spread slows down, key replay number 1.23 through May 10

The states that are experiencing exponential growth in cases are Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Delhi and West Bengal.

Between April 13 and May 10, the transmission rate of Covid-19 (represented by the basic playback number or R number) remained stable at 1.23, even after some of the blocking restrictions were lowered the May 4, according to a study by the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai.

The transmission rate is primarily due to outbreaks in some states, while most states reported contained growth. At the beginning of the block, the R-nada (indicating the initial transmission rate) from March 27 to April 6 was 1.83. In the study of infectious diseases, the basic reproduction number (R0 at first, and then the R number) is used to assess the severity of an outbreak. This number is an average, which reflects the number of people infected by an infected person. The current R number of 1.23 means that a Covid-19 patient is infecting 1.23 other people on average.

“There has been remarkably little variation in the rate from April 13 onward,” said researcher Sitabhra Sinha.

The new data captures the trend a week after some restrictions were eased on April 20, and then again on May 4.
At this current rate, India can see 70,000-80,000 active cases by May 17, Sinha said. The number of active cases on Tuesday was 46,008.

The states that are experiencing exponential growth in cases are Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Delhi and West Bengal.

Among the 10 states with the highest number of cases (Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab), Tamil Nadu has the highest R number at 2.01. The state saw its numbers surpass Delhi’s this week, mainly due to a cluster in the Koyambedu market in Chennai, as well as an expansion of tests to 3.37 tests per thousand people.

Punjab has also seen an increase in an R 1.32 number, in part because pilgrims who returned from Nanded tested positive; The state testing figures are 1.42 per thousand people.

In this group, four states with the largest outbreaks (Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Delhi) account for two thirds of India’s case load.

In this group, four states with the largest outbreaks (Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Delhi) account for two thirds of India’s case load.

While the total West Bengal case count remains relatively low (2,063), the state has seen a fluctuating R number: 1.51 in April-end, 1.14 in May-beginning, 1.34 through May 10. The state also has a rate drop of tests (45 tests for every thousand people).

Except for Tamil Nadu, the other southern states have seen almost linear growth. For example, although Andhra Pradesh is in the top 10 states by number of cases, it has slowed its growth with a high testing rate (3.47 per thousand people). Kerala is also now a well-known example of a flattened curve.

Some states with a large number of active cases (Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan) show “sub-exponential” growth, which means moderate expansion. Rajasthan’s testing ratio is moderate (2.15 per thousand), but Uttar Pradesh (.58 per thousand) and Madhya Pradesh (.92 per thousand) are evaluating relatively fewer people.
In the east, Bihar and Odisha have experienced recent increases, in part due to cases among migrants arriving home. Bihar’s testing ratio remains low (.29 per thousand) while Odisha has steadily increased its capacity (1.37 per thousand).

Although the third phase of the closure is scheduled to end on May 17, Sinha warned that “in the absence of other containment measures, a closure alone may not be enough to prevent the epidemic from growing again once the strict restrictions on remote movement of people. “

AIIMS Director Dr. Randeep Guleria, who is part of the core team overseeing the pandemic in India, had previously said that the curve was still increasing (meaning an R number greater than 1). “The number of cases continues to increase every day. But the increase in the curve is not so strong that we cannot handle it, “said Guleria.

📣 The Indian Express is now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel (@indianexpress) and stay updated with the latest headlines

For the latest news from India, download the Indian Express app.

© The Indian Express (P) Ltd