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The speed and diversity of the portfolio’s development and the scale of its manufacture will determine how soon an effective Covid-19 vaccine for mass use can become available, which experts say can cost anywhere from “$ 1 to $ 15 per dozen.” “, an optimal price band to extend immunization programs to poorer countries.
“There is a question of speed and the second is that of volume. Some vaccine approaches are very fast, and some vaccine approaches can reach a billion dose scale, ”Dr. Lynda Stuart, Assistant Director Bill and the Melinda Gates Foundation said last week. The foundation has pledged $ 250 million for vaccine research and development for Covid-19.
The widespread spread of the disease on all continents poses an additional challenge for vaccine developers: producing more than seven billion doses to serve all of humanity, including poor and less developed nations, which may not be in conditions to finance mass immunization on this scale
Currently, between 80 and 100 laboratories in Europe, China and the USA. USA They are carrying out this research aimed at reducing and then eradicating the new SARS-2 coronavirus that has blocked a third of the planet and has claimed more than two hundred thousand lives in the world. finished.
The Jenner Institute at Oxford University has been the first to start Phase 1 clinical trials of a possible vaccine. The institute has also partnered with British drug maker AstreZeneca for large-scale production if regulators approve the vaccine. Moderna, Innovio, Johnson & Johnson and Sanofi are other pharmaceutical companies that are currently in the race to develop the vaccine.
“If we receive a vaccine very quickly but we can only administer it to ten people, then it will not help us. If we can get the vaccine, we can give it to millions of people, but it takes ten years, so that is not the right strategy either. Stuart adds. She thinks the cost per injection for the Covid-19 vaccine could be somewhere between “$ 1 to $ 15”.
It usually takes about a year for the vaccine to reach the testing stage. The Oxford team led by Professor Sarah Gilbert gained eight to nine months over the competition by reaching this stage in less than four. Some optimistic projections have estimated the role as early as the fall of this year. However, most experts predict that the vaccine would be available for mass use between 14 and 18 months from now.
The scale of manufacturing is also critical to ensure an equitable distribution of the vaccine, although inoculation of healthcare workers, the elderly and vulnerable sections would be the first batch priority.
Speaking on the ethics of poor resource planning organized last month, Ruth R Faden, professor of biomedical ethics at John Hopkins, outlined the equitable distribution of resources in the face of a medical emergency, issues that may find resonance in prioritizing immunization when the vaccine is ready for mass use.
“There are two parts to justice, there is a safe part where you must identify the principles of the rules that you are going to use to allocate scarce resources. And then we also need a process to make sure that, regardless of the rules that are adopted, they are followed fairly, impartially and to the best of our ability, ”Faden said.
To meet the demands as Covid-19 vaccines are approved by drug regulators, manufacturers like the Pune-based Serum Institute are preparing to begin production of some of the proposed vaccines that are yet to undergo clinical trials. advanced.
India, Indonesia and Thailand are the largest vaccine manufacturers in the world. WHO is currently coordinating with these countries and their drug regulatory authorities to accelerate manufacturing and establish a roadmap for distribution of the Covid-19 vaccine.
It is estimated that an investment of $ 2 billion would be needed to develop the vaccine in the next 12 to 18 months. In their attempts to provide “vaccine for all”, international donors are investing in a wide range of portfolios to maximize the chances of success and ensure equitable distribution.
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