NEW DELHI: As India and China remain stuck in disengagement in Ladakh, New Delhi is well aware that it is playing a game of endurance and nerves with China in the icy heights, the outcome of which may be influenced not only by both sides but also also global developments, including the results of the US elections.
India and China have crouched down for the winter, and the apparent lack of progress on a disengagement deal clearly means that neither side is willing to give up what it considers “gains” in recent months. China has asked India to abandon the ridges on the southern shore of Pangong Tso, while India has asked China to initiate disengagement along LAC earlier. Indian troops Follow the example.
Since Chinese troops not only diverted through LAC in April and came with a specific intention, India hopes that Beijing will deliver on schedule and has planned accordingly. President Xi JinpingTuesday’s speech to the Chinese Marine Corps seems to suggest that China is nowhere near disengagement. The official media quoted him telling the troops to “fully concentrate on combat readiness and always remain on high alert.”
Interestingly, the US elections could be a factor in China’s decision to maintain tensions with India and others in eastern and southern China. Many analysts have predicted a moderation in US approaches to China by a possible Joe Biden administration, while a returned Trump may continue his hard line. The truth is probably that the US is unlikely to ever engage with China as in the past, given growing unrest in Washington about Beijing.
However, the possibility of resumption of deeper economic activity between the US and China could affect the attitude of both countries towards India and the current conflict. In this, Xi Jinping is also boosted by the apparent revival of the Chinese economy. The reactivation of the United States could be favored by resuming the economic commitment with China. The fact that India has a harder time coming out of the Covid depression is likely another factor for China as it seeks to push India further.
The process has become a bit more difficult for China as India has reversed a number of disadvantages in the Ladakh heights and is in a tactically improved position. What would also work for India is the growing global dislike of Chinese lobbying tactics, which have even made the Democratic leadership in the United States weigh India’s support.
Planners here say that India has accounted for full rollout in winter as in Siachen. China has reportedly followed suit. But as temperatures drop alarmingly and the wind chill factor worsens, the challenge will be to keep troops adequately resourced and morale high. With long experience in Siachen, India believes it can outlive China.
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