Updated: September 2, 2020 7:09:13 am
Republicans nominated President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence for a second term. (Reuters photo)
Battle lines have been drawn for the US presidential elections, with “law and order” versus “poor leadership,” especially during Covid-19, emerging as the key rival issues.
The campaign officially began during the past fortnight, with the Democratic National Convention (August 17-20) and the Republican National Convention (August 24-27), both online for the first time. Republicans nominated President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence for a second term, while Democrats named former Vice President Joe Biden as president and Senator Kamala Harris as vice president.
What is the Republican tone?
At Republican National Convention (RNC), Trump said the United States is under attack by “anarchists, agitators, rioters, looters and flag burners,” and that only he can stop the destruction. His reference was to the protests over the shooting of Jacob blake in recent days, and demonstrations against the murder of George Floyd in May-June, both men of color.
American analysts have said that Trump’s access to the politics of fear and anarchy is reminiscent of the 1968 elections in the United States.
What do the 1968 elections have in common?
In April 1968, civil rights activist Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated, followed by protests and violence across the country.
Richard Nixon, the Republican presidential candidate, made the restoration of “law and order” the centerpiece of his campaign. At the 1968 RNC in Miami, he said: “When we look at the United States, we see cities engulfed in smoke and flames. We hear sirens in the night … And for those who say that law and order is the keyword for racism, here and there is an answer … our goal is justice, justice for all Americans. “
In reaching out to white suburban voters, Nixon referred to them as the “voice of the vast majority of Americans, the forgotten Americans, those who don’t yell, those who don’t speak out.” Driven by fear of violent mobs of black men, white voters in the suburbs prevailed and Nixon won.
In 2020, Trump is tapping into the same instincts of white suburban voters with a call for “law and order” based on fear of a “silent majority.”
Democratic candidates Joe Biden and Kamala Harris at the Democratic National Convention. (AP Photo: Andrew Harnik)
But hasn’t the suburban electorate changed since 1968?
Between 1968 and 2020, the suburbs have acquired a much more diverse and mixed-race demographic. The “suburban voter” is no longer “overwhelmingly white”: According to a 2018 study cited by The Washington Post, only 68% of suburbanites were white, 14% were Hispanic, and 11% were black.
In recent decades, the suburbs have also been the sites of Black Lives Matter protests. A New York Times analysis said suburban voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of recent protests and race relations by an even wider margin, and 65% favored Black Lives Matter.
Another difference is that in 1968, Nixon was not yet president. This time, the protests and violence take place under the supervision of President Trump. That complicates the situation; in fact, Nixon’s similar rhetoric later in the period didn’t work.
To counter the charge of racism, the Trump campaign also sent black speakers. Soccer legend Herschel Walker, who is black, told the RNC: “I have seen racism up close. I know what it is. And it is not Donald Trump. “
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Throughout the convention, Trump broke the traditional boundaries between government and politics. (AP Photo)
What is the tone of the Democrats?
At Democratic National Convention (DNC), Bide focused his campaign on a lack of leadership to tackle the pandemic, which has claimed more than 1.8 lakh lives in six months. His campaign has targeted the maskless convention on the White House lawn, which he called “a super spreading event.”
Biden presented himself as someone who can lift America out of crisis, as an “ally of the light, not the dark.” With Harris as its vice presidential nominee and testimonies from people of color, Biden’s campaign sought to reach non-white voters as well as the college-educated white voter.
Overall, Biden’s key message has been to warn American voters that another four-year term would lead to more deaths and chaos on the streets. His team wants to keep the spotlight on Trump, rather than himself; he has made mistakes in his speeches in the past. Trump named Biden 40 times in his speech, while Biden did not name him once.
Why are Republicans targeting Biden?
Republicans have called Biden physically and mentally unfit to lead the country. Trump’s team has labeled the Biden-Harris duo as the “radical left” and one that encouraged the “violent mob.” Trump has pointed out that Biden, 77, would be the oldest president in his first term if he won in November.
Democrats, for their part, have portrayed Biden as someone with long and deep experience as a senator and vice president, and someone with empathy. Biden’s calling card is also his extensive experience and he has worked with President Barack Obama in the Oval Office, where they discussed H1N1 and Ebola. And his speech at the convention was without errors.
The DNC also published stories from Biden’s own life: he lost his wife and 13-month-old daughter in a car accident and a son died of brain cancer, presenting him as someone who can become the “boss mourner.” According to US analysts, Democrats are insisting on Biden’s “empathy” to appeal to American families who have lost loved ones to the pandemic.
Joe Biden hugs his wife Jill after his speech during the Democratic National Convention. (AP Photo: Andrew Harnik)
How is the race situated?
Both Conventions received the same attention online: around 50 million social media interactions (likes, comments, shares) on related stories.
Two first ladies, former and current, dominated the viral stories of the two Conventions. While Michelle Obama was The most popular of the DNC, Melania Trump was the most viral of RNC. Michelle Obama’s speech was 5 times more viral than the former president’s Barack Obama, according to online data trackers. Melania Trump’s message about Covid-19 and empathy was something that Democrats found most effective as they attacked her husband for the pandemic.
National polls were stable until the end of May, when Biden led with 5 points. After protests over Floyd’s murder in May and June, his lead is now 8 points. Currently, it is at about 50% for Biden and 42% for Trump.
How indicative are such clues?
Disorders can occur. As Axios, a news outlet noted, “It feels like August 2016 again. Polls show that Donald Trump loses a lot. Experts proclaim that he cannot win. Reporters mock Trump voters on Twitter and cable. “
While Biden’s lead is larger than Hillary Clinton’s over Trump in August 2016, Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs commentator for the Financial Times, wrote: “But clues like the one Biden is currently enjoying have been overcome before. In 1988, Democrat Michael Dukakis was 17 points ahead after his party’s convention, but lost in November (to George W Bush).
He cited a poll from mid-August that showed Biden seven points ahead. But when voters were asked who they thought their neighbors supported, Trump was five points ahead. This may indicate the existence of a group of ‘shy; Trump Supporters Who Will Not Admit Their Loyalty To Pollsters “.
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Another July poll in Pennsylvania, a key state on the battlefield, showed Biden a 13-point lead. “But when voters were asked who they thought would win the state, they narrowly opted for Mr. Trump 46-45,” Rachman wrote.
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