A record number of Americans are expected to vote by the end of Tuesday, when the polls close and the counting begins in what has been called the most momentous election in US history to achieve a strong economy and a public order; or replace him with his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, who has vowed to make defeating the Covid-19 pandemic his top priority and unify a sharply divided nation.
Americans are also voting to elect 435 members of the House of Representatives, which is currently controlled by Democrats, and 35 members of the Republican-dominated United States Senate (including special elections in Arizona and Georgia). Democrats are expected to maintain control of the House, but the big fight is for the Senate.
Also on the ballot is an American Indian who can make history if elected: Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice presidential candidate. She will be the first black woman and the first of Indian, South Asian and Asian descent to be elected to the high office. Four American Indian members of Congress are seeking re-election: Pramila Jayapal, Ro Khanna, Ami Bera and Raja Krishnamoorthi, and a few others, who are running for their first terms.
Biden has consistently led Trump in national polls and battle states; the race has been remarkably stable. The former Vice President leads the incumbent by 8.4 percentage points (51.8% -43.4%) on the FiveThirtyEight weighted average and 6.7 (50.7% -44%) percentage points on the RealClearPolitics average, but only 2.3 points in the aggregator polls in the major battlefield states.
Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Minnesota, and Iowa are the battle states that will determine which of the two nominees surpasses the electoral college’s 270-vote threshold to win the race.
Polling closes on staggered schedules, in three time zones. Florida, North Carolina and Arizona, which are likely to finish counting their votes earlier than others, are expected to present the first indications of where the 2020 election was headed. Trump won the 2016 election with 304 votes in the front electoral college. Hillary Clinton’s 227; but the Democrat won the popular vote by nearly three million votes.
Both Trump and Biden voted early along with nearly 100 million Americans, who had already cast their votes as of the opening of the last voting day on Tuesday; 35.7 million in person at early voting centers and 63.9 million by mail, a preferred option for Americans concerned about the continuing onslaught of the Covid-19 epidemic that has killed more than 231,000 people and infected 9, 2 millions.
“We’re seeing a historic turnout in 2020, from roughly 138 million votes cast in 2016 to possibly 150, or more in 2020,” said Meena Bose, a political science professor at Hofstra University in New York. “Absentee ballots (votes by mail) are expected to triple compared to 2016, from less than a quarter to possibly close to three-quarters.
He added: “And for the first time in American history, more votes are likely to be cast before elections than on Election Day, either by absentee voting or by voting. [in-person] vote.”
Tensions and tempers have risen, with a specter of violence looming. A high, impossible-to-climb fence ring was thrown around the White House overnight in a reminder of the protective measures taken last summer during anti-racism protests. President Trump warned of “violence in the streets” in a tweet Monday that was flagged by Twitter. Boarded up stores and commercial establishments in downtown Washington DC; Massachusetts has national guards on standby and Oregon has declared a state of emergency in Portland. They are preparing for unrest and violence no matter who won.
International Crisis Group, an independent organization that works to prevent wars and seeks to sound the alarm to avoid deadly conflicts, has warned that “the ingredients for unrest are present. The electorate is polarized, both sides frame what is at stake, since existential and violent actors could interrupt the process and a prolonged dispute is possible ”. He added that Trump’s “often inflammatory rhetoric suggests he is more likely to stoke tensions than to calm.”
The two nominees concluded their final arguments at rallies and speeches in the states of the battlefield that will determine the outcome. Both were in Pennsylvania, where Trump issued an angry and ominous warning to the state’s Governor, Tom Wolf. “Look at what’s happening in Philadelphia, we’re watching it, Governor,” he said at a rally, adding, “Make sure your governor doesn’t cheat, because they are known for very bad things here. But we have many eyes looking, many very powerful eyes here. “
Biden closed his case in Pittsburg, where he had launched his campaign in April 2019, with a commitment to control the Covid-19 epidemic. “We are going to act to have COVID-19 under control. On the first day we will put into action the plan I have been talking about ”. He added that he will choose “unity over division, hope over fear, science over fiction and … truth over lies.”
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