To become president, candidates compete to win electoral college votes. Each state gets its electoral college votes based on its population. Voters decide who goes to the Electoral College and, except for two states, all others have a “winner takes all” rule, which means that whoever wins the highest number of votes in the state gets all Electoral College votes. . Out of a total of 538 electoral college votes, the winner must obtain 270 or more votes to become president. This also means that it is not necessary to win the popular vote to become president, since the United States has an indirect election system. This was true for the 2016 presidential election in which Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but was unable to win the electoral college.
The 2020 presidential election could be decided by just a handful of states. As in 2016, only a small margin of votes in some states determined the outcome of the elections. These are known as oscillating states. Here’s a look at seven changing states that could shape the outcome of the 2020 presidential election:
1. Michigan: Traditionally, Michigan has been a Democratic stronghold because of working-class voters, a group that tends to vote for the Democratic Party, but this changed in the 2016 presidential election when Trump won Michigan by a small margin of 0.23%, with 47.50% of the total votes against Hilary Clinton who obtained 47.27% of the votes. A victory in Michigan means 16 Electoral College votes for the candidates and in 2016 Donald Trump won Michigan with the narrowest margin of victory in Michigan presidential election history, which was also the narrowest margin of victory of any state in the 2016 elections.
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2. Wisconsin: Demographically, Wisconsin rural white and blue-collar voters play an important role in deciding who wins the state. The state has 10 electoral college votes and Donald Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by a narrow 0.77% margin, with 47.22% of total votes compared to 46.45% for Hillary Clinton. This made Trump the first Republican candidate to win the state since Ronald Reagan won in 1984.
3. Arizona: Arizona has traditionally been a Republican stronghold with 11 electoral college votes. Donald Trump won Arizona in 2016 by a 3.5 percent margin, but this once-Republican stronghold is now seen as a key state in this election, as the absence of Republican stalwarts like Sen. John McCain has affected the dynamics. of the state. The state also has a growing Hispanic population, a group leaning toward the Democratic Party.
4. Georgia: Georgia contributes 16 Electoral College votes and has not elected a Democrat to be president since 1992. In 2016, Trump won Georgia by 5.1% while Hillary Clinton received 45.35% of the vote. . With its rapidly growing diverse population and Democrats like Stacey Abrams gaining popularity across the country, Georgia is being seen as a changing state for 2020.
5. North Carolina: In 2016, Trump obtained 15 votes from the Electoral College of North Carolina with a margin of 3.66% and 49.83% of the total vote, while Hillary Clinton obtained 46.17% of the votes. With a mix of rural, urban and suburban voters, the importance of the state is reflected in Donald Trump’s frequent visits to the state.
6. Florida: With 29 Electoral College votes, Florida is the largest swing state in America and always has been. The margin of victory in the state has been very low and Trump won in this state in 2016 with 49% of the total votes compared to 47.8% for Clinton; only by 1.2 percentage points.
7. Pennsylvania: In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes, less than 1 percentage point, the narrowest margin in a presidential election for the state in 176 years. With 20 electoral votes, the state is called the ‘Blue Wall state’, but Trump’s victory in 2016 has turned Pennsylvania into a battle state for 2020.
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