The northwestern and southwestern districts of Delhi together accounted for almost one in three active Covid-19 cases in the capital, which is seeing an increase in cases, albeit thanks to higher testing.
And Delhi’s most densely populated northeast district, which has around 40,000 people per km2, has only 894 active cases, 2.87% of the total, the lowest among the city’s 11 districts.
Interestingly, according to the district data from the second sero-survey (antibody tests) of Delhi (August) – the division of the third survey is not available in the public domain – 29.6% of the population in the northeast district has been exposed to the virus, the same proportion as in the Northwest.
That probably means that not enough testing is being done in northeast Delhi. District test numbers are not available.
The Northwest District, which accounts for 16.3% (5,086) of the capital’s active cases, and the Southwest, which accounts for 13.3% (4,151) – all numbers correspond to Wednesday, when Delhi had 31,201 cases assets – have a mix of planned residential areas and densely populated unplanned areas including colonies, villages and unauthorized slum groups.
Prominent localities in these districts where large numbers of Covid-19 cases have been identified, both in clusters and in isolation, include Pitampura, Ashok Vihar, Rohini Sectors 14-18, Najafgarh, and various sectors of the Dwarka sub-city, officials said. in the revenue department citing geospatial details that only they have access to. The two districts have 465 of Delhi’s 1,751 containment zones as of Friday.
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On Thursday, the data was discussed at a meeting of officials from the departments of income and health, chaired by Chief Secretary Vijay Dev, said a senior government official who did not want to be named, adding that the meeting’s agenda was to seek shapes. to understand patterns in the distribution of active Covid-19 cases across the city.
While (Northwest) District Magistrate Sandeep Mishra did not respond to calls and messages, (Southwest) District Magistrate Rahul Singh said: “We have aggressively increased testing, so the numbers are high and we have also increased surveillance in the whole district. We are aggressively following the containment strategy under the guidelines issued by the union government. The idea is to break the chain of transmission ”.
West Delhi with 3502 cases (11.22%) has the third highest load of active Covid-19 cases. They are followed by 3,296 in South Delhi (10.56%) and 2,935 in Southeast Delhi (9.41%).
Dr Jugal Kishore, Head of Community Medicine at Safdarjung Hospital and Vice President of the Indian Association of Epidemiologists, said: “In the case of Delhi, the transmission of the virus started in exclusive colonies, with Covid-19 positive people returning from abroad and infected others before they were detected. Over time, the virus spread further and reached densely populated colonies. When cases peaked in June, densely populated low-income towns and slums emerged as points of threat. “
Delhi passed that first peak with aggressive testing and containment. But after falling for much of July and August, the number of new cases began to rise again.
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“With testing expanding and more people from different walks of life coming out for testing, cases have again started to emerge in the high-income neighborhoods. Locality-based data analysis would definitely help the government improve its policies in terms of testing, surveillance, isolation, and patient care, ”Kishore added.
District officials in northeast Delhi said that the spread of the virus accelerated much later in the district, which is almost an entire region of low-income groups, and by then there was already an increase in cases in the districts of the southeast and south. . “So northeast Delhi learned its lessons early, before things got worse, and increased vigilance before things got out of hand,” said a senior district official who did not want to be named. The district currently has only 57 containment zones.
Dr Lalit Kant, former head of the Division of Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), said: “The numbers here (northeast of Delhi) suggest that a large population in the densely populated northeast district were patients with Covid-19 without symptoms or mild symptoms. Fewer people were tested, so the number of infections and active cases remains low. But the findings from the sero-survey later revealed that a large number of them had already been exposed to the virus when the testing was scaled up. “
It may not be as straightforward as that, another expert suggested.
Dr T Jacob John, former head of the virology department at the Christian Medical College in Tamil Nadu Vellore, said: “Most interpretations of the data at this point would be valid only for the moment because things around the subject and our knowledge about it – they are still evolving. For example, the poorer and densely populated neighboring countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh have had better numbers and proportions compared to India in several respects. Similarly, Dharavi in Mumbai, which once emerged as a hotspot, currently has fewer active cases than many upmarket neighborhoods in Mumbai. Northeast Delhi could be a similar case. We need more time and studies to determine cause and effect relationships and scientifically validate these trends. ”
Delhi government spokesmen did not comment on the matter.
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