The 243 electoral districts of the Bihar Assembly (CA) will go to the polls in three phases: 71 on October 28; 94 on November 3 and 78 on November 7. An analysis of HT shows that each of these phases will comprise ACs that are different from each other in multiple ways. This, in a way, is symptomatic of the sociocultural and political diversity of the state, as well as the different historical failures.
The ‘language’ of the campaign will change from Phase 1 to 3
The Biharis speak at least three major languages, often including Hindi. According to the 2011 census, only 26% of Biharis reported that their mother tongue was Hindi. A quarter reported that their mother tongue was Bhojpuri, 11% Magadhi or Magahi, and 13% Maithili. Another 8% reported that their mother tongue was Urdu. The different languages dominate in the autonomous communities that go to the polls in each of the three phases. The first phase is dominated by Magahi speakers, the second by Bhojpuri speakers, and the third phase by Maithili speakers. The proportion of Urdu speakers also increases from the first to the third phase.
Dalits will be the most important in the first phase, Muslims in the third phase
According to the 2015-16 National Family Health Survey (NFHS), Other Backward Classes (OBC) are the largest social group in Bihar. OBC’s share of Bihar’s population is higher than the average for the whole of India. Bihar also has a smaller proportion of Hindus who do not belong to the category of Programmed Caste (SC), OBC or Programmed Tribe (ST) than Uttar Pradesh, the only Hindi-speaking state larger than Bihar. That is why the OBC policy is central to Bihar.
Because the NFHS data is based on a sample and is not representative below the state level, it cannot be used to estimate the proportions of the population by social groups at the district level. The only representative source for the proportion of the population by social groups is the 2011 census, which only provides the population proportions for SC, ST, and different religious groups. A HT analysis using data from the 2011 Census mapped to the CA level by How India Lives shows that SCs have the highest proportion of population in CAs that go to the polls in the first phase; this descends in the second and third phases. This is confirmed by the proportion of SC reserved seats in each of these phases. Phase one has the highest proportion of SC reserved seats, 18%, compared to 14% in phase two and 15% in phase three. Another analysis of district-level data from the 2011 Census shows that the proportion of Muslims is following the opposite direction. It is the lowest in the first phase and the highest in the third phase. Given the centrality of the Muslim vote in the final phase, it is expected that the communal rhetoric will grow stronger as the elections progress.
The ghosts of caste violence will be the most important in the first phase
Bihar has a history of violent conflicts over land, which were fought according to castes, especially in the 1980s and 1990s. Data available on the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) show that Bihar witnessed 90 caste massacres between 1976 and 2001; 856 people, both from socially oppressed and dominant caste groups; both landowners and agricultural workers and the landless poor lost their lives in these incidents. Memories of this violence still play a role in driving political decisions in the state. With the alliance led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) that includes all three left-wing parties, including the Communist Liberation Party of India (Marxist-Leninist), a party that has a past of clandestine and armed struggle in the state, The Bharatiya Janata Party (The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP has been trying to consolidate the upper caste groups by evoking the history of violent conflicts over land. This will have the maximum impact in the first phase of the elections. HT analysis using SATP data shows that almost all regions where these caste massacres took place will go to the polls in the first phase.Geographically speaking, this is also the region that lies south of the Ganges River in the state.
Political fortunes have changed dramatically in the last three elections
Political fortunes have varied dramatically in the Autonomous Communities that went to the polls in each of the phases in Bihar. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA; which featured the BJP, Janata Dal (United) and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), won an overwhelming majority of ACs in each of the regions. The grand alliance of RJD, JD (U) and Congress followed suit in the 2015 assembly elections. In 2014, it was the NDA made up of BJP, LJP and the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) that dominated the AC that went to the polls in each of the phases. The next elections are being fought with different alignments. The NDA comprises the BJP and JD (U) along with two smaller parties, namely the Hindustan Awami Morcha (HAM) and the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP). The RJD has linked up with Congress and the three left-wing parties. The LJP is contesting 136 BC on its own, while the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) has teamed up with the Bahujan Samaj Party, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, and some other smaller parties. A look at the history of Bihar shows that the winning alliance generally works well across the state.
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