The mutated strain of coronavirus that has been spreading in the UK appears to be more contagious and will likely lead to higher levels of hospitalizations and deaths next year, a new study showed.
The variant is 56% more transmissible than other strains, according to the study by the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. There is no clear evidence that it results in a more or less serious disease.
The UK government had previously said that the mutated variant appears to be up to 70% more transmissible than other circulating strains. Additionally, it has nearly two dozen mutations that can affect the proteins produced by the coronavirus, Patrick Vallance, the UK’s chief scientific adviser, said on December 19.
That has raised concerns that tests, treatments and vaccines that have just started to roll out could be less effective, although Europe’s health regulator said the variant is likely not different enough from previous ones to bypass the vaccine from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE. Countries like Australia, Denmark, and Singapore have also discovered the strain.
Measures such as England’s national lockdown in November are unlikely to reduce the number of breeding (estimated new infections come from a single case) to less than 1 unless schools and universities are also closed, according to the report. He also said vaccine launches may need to be accelerated to contain their spread, at a rate of 2 million people per week from the current rate of 200,000.
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