More than 66 million Americans, about 50 percent of the 2016 turnout, have already voted; 44 million through mail-in ballots and 22 million in person. With polls indicating a huge advantage for Democrats in early voting, Trump opened a can of worms Tuesday by tweeting: “Strongly trending (Google) since immediately after the second debate is CAN I CHANGE MY VOTE? This refers to changing it to me. The answer in most states is YES. Go do it. The most important choice of your life! ”
Strongly Trending (Google) since immediately after the second debate is CAN I CHANGE MY VOTE? This refers to change … https://t.co/xFfiaQsXps
– Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) 1603795986000
There are questionable assumptions and claims in the tweet about a short trend from a week ago, including a change in preference for it. But more pertinently, only some states, including battlefields Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump narrowly won in 2016: allow a vote change, while others like Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, do not.
Even in states that allow a change, the rules are different at the county level. In Wisconsin, voters can change their minds up to three times before their vote is officially cast and counted. In Connecticut, it is up to local officials to decide whether voters can change their minds. Some states allow voters to change their ballot until Election Day, while in other states they must do so before a predetermined date.
Some of the confusing rules are also being rewritten all the time by a partisan judiciary at every level that Republicans have tipped in their favor, a strategy crowned by the confirmation and oath of Amy coney barrett that has given them an ideological majority of 6-3 in the US Supreme Court. On Monday, even before Barrett took his seat, the Court, in a setback for Democrats, ruled 5-3 that Wisconsin cannot count mail-in ballots arriving after the polls close on November 3, with three Liberal judges disagree.
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Making it almost certain that there will be no clear winner on November 3 unless one of the candidates is crushed, some states like Pennsylvania don’t open mail-in ballots for counting until Election Day, which, given the huge numbers, will mean the count could last for days. In some states, mail-in ballots must arrive before the closing time for voting on Election Day; in others they must be postmarked before closing time and can be counted even after arrival up to six days later.
The US president’s tactic to seek a revised vote came even as riots broke out in Philadelphia after police fired on a black man with several officers wounded in subsequent clashes. The president of the USA has presented himself as a “law and order” president who has the backing of the majority of uniformed men’s and police unions across the country, even as he continues to scare suburban voters by claim that his life and property will be in danger if the Democrats come to power.
Trump won multiple states on the battlefield by less than one percent in 2016, so disenfranchising or rejecting even a small percentage of voters or votes through local political office and / or the judiciary could cripple the results, if not ultimately achieve victory through a rigged judiciary. Trump is pointing to his boisterous in-person rally by supporters to claim that there is a red wave in his favor that will erase polls and early trends showing the Biden-Harris ticket won.
“Real polls now say I’m WINNING! Biggest (and most exciting) rallies EVER. Rasmussen 53% national,” he tweeted Tuesday, hanging on a single poll among a dozen showing him leading.
All of this will be inconsequential if Biden wins Texas, where polls show him tied with Trump, and where both Biden and Kamala harris will go later this week to make a late bid to win a state last won by a Democrat (Jimmy carter) in 1976. With 38 electoral votes, Texas is the largest award after California (55), which is a Democratic stronghold.
The Economist survey model shows that Trump only has a 4 percent change in winning the 270 Electoral Votes needed to win a second term, and less than one percent chance of winning the popular vote nationally (which is inconsequential on who wins the White House).
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