Delhi is in the midst of the third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. The number of new confirmed cases daily in Delhi has increased for about fifteen days. The Union territory reported more than 7,500 new cases on Thursday. As the focus continues on the national capital, data from other states suggests that India may be starting to see the second wave of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) pandemic.
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New daily cases have stopped falling
India saw an increasing trend of new confirmed Covid-19 cases daily for about six months after the infection began to spread in the country. The number of daily new cases peaked just below the 100,000 mark on September 10 (when 99,181 new cases were reported). This was followed by a downward trend in daily new cases until the end of October before the rate of decline slowed and the daily new cases curve flattened. To be sure, daily new cases dropped significantly earlier this week, mainly due to a decrease in the number of tests performed over the weekend, which coincided with the Diwali festival. An average of 45,800 new cases were reported in India on Wednesday and Thursday, which is slightly more than the average daily new cases reported on weekdays last week. Registered cases usually take a day to test. Only 735,551 tests were performed on Sundays compared to an average of 1,09,8200 each day of the week last week.
How is this a sign of the second wave?
The path that the chart of daily new cases follows in India – first peaking, then declining, and now stagnant – has been similar to other large countries that have also seen subsequent waves of the pandemic. This has been seen in the US (now in its third wave of the pandemic), the UK (which appears to be near the peak of the second wave), Russia, and Italy (both are experiencing much stronger second waves). ). Subsequent waves in the US and Russia came almost immediately after new daily cases from the previous wave stopped falling. In the case of Italy and the United Kingdom, there was a longer gap between the first and second waves.
Cases are increasing again in some large states
Time will tell how the trajectory of cases in India moves, but data from several of the large states in India besides Delhi show that cases there have started to increase in the last fortnight. These states include Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Punjab. The territory of the Chandigarh Union has also shown a slightly increasing trend in daily new cases. These states and Delhi are home to almost a quarter of the population of India. Three of these states – Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan – were among those leading the first wave of the pandemic in the country. These are large states, so a sharp increase in cases there is sure to increase the national case count. There are undoubtedly other large states where the trajectory of new daily cases continues to decline, such as Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu.
How bad will the wave be?
India is far better prepared to handle an increase in Covid-19 cases than when the infection began to spread. The country also has more resources for testing. The world at large is now more aware of what treatments work and how to manage symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. India’s monthly case fatality rate (new deaths as a percentage of new cases) has been declining over time: it was 3.24% in April, but fell to 1.15% in October. But even when the country may be better prepared and more aware, a steep increase in cases could overwhelm the country’s healthcare infrastructure and thus lead to higher death rates. This makes it much more important to take precautions like wearing a mask and upholding the rules of social distancing.
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